Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp-d9063e6c-833b-4429-a123-2deceb2fe823">Barrick Gold </a>is strategically positioned as a leading senior gold producer with a world-class portfolio of 'Tier One' assets, which are large, long-life, and low-cost mines.</li>
 <li>A significant strategic pivot towards copper, with major projects like Reko Diq and the Lumwana expansion, aims to diversify revenue streams and capitalize on the growing demand from global electrification trends, targeting copper to be 30% of production by the end of the decade.</li>
 <li>The company demonstrates a strong commitment to shareholder returns through a disciplined dividend policy and share buybacks, supported by robust free cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Barrick Gold is strategically positioned as a leading senior gold producer with a world-class portfolio of 'Tier One' assets, which are large, long-life, and low-cost mines.
  A significant strategic pivot towards copper, with major projects like Reko Diq and the Lumwana expansion, aims to diversify revenue streams and capitalize on the growing demand from global electrification trends, targeting copper to be 30% of production by the end of the decade.
  The company demonstrates a strong commitment to shareholder returns through a disciplined dividend policy and share buybacks, supported by robust free cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Barrick Gold  (ABX CN) - Aug 2026

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.</li>
<li>The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.
The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market 


Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

<ul>
<li>Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.</li>
<li>With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
<li>Our top large-cap pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>, and in the small and midcap space, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> and Wesdome Gold. </li>
</ul>


Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.
With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) at 10.8%.
Our top large-cap pick is Barrick Mining (B US), and in the small and midcap space, we like Apex Mining Co (APX PM) and Wesdome Gold. 


Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Primer: Barrick Gold (ABX CN) - Aug 2026

Barrick Gold is strategically positioned as a leading senior gold producer with a world-class portfolio of 'Tier One' assets, which are large,...

αSK Primers

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

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Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

Primer: Barrick Gold (ABX CN) - Aug 2026

Barrick Gold is strategically positioned as a leading senior gold producer with a world-class portfolio of 'Tier One' assets, which are large,...

αSK Primers

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja