Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. </li>
<li>Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has underperformed peers and juniors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a>) since gold has spiked.</li>
<li>Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. 
Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, Newmont Mining (NEM US) has underperformed peers and juniors (VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)) since gold has spiked.
Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.


Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>'s IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend to be reasonable but not fair.</li>
<li>The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont's shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.</li>
<li>The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%. </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)'s IE considers Newmont Mining (NEM US)’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend to be reasonable but not fair.
The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont's shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.
The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%. 


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back in 2018, mini-exploration mining play - rare earths, gold, and base metals - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiana-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5289:1" rel="noopener"> Indiana Resources (IDA AU)</a> had its Tanzanian retention licence revoked. With no compensation.</li>
<li>Indiana pursued its claim through the World Bank-backed ICSID's tribunal, which subsequently ordered the Tanzanian government to pay US$109.5mn in damages and costs, versus Indiana's current market cap of US$21mn.</li>
<li>Not surprisingly, the Tanzanian government is pushing back on the claim. The question is whether Indiana will ever get paid. And Indiana's not the only company seeking revocation retribution.</li>
</ul>


Back in 2018, mini-exploration mining play - rare earths, gold, and base metals -  Indiana Resources (IDA AU) had its Tanzanian retention licence revoked. With no compensation.
Indiana pursued its claim through the World Bank-backed ICSID's tribunal, which subsequently ordered the Tanzanian government to pay US$109.5mn in damages and costs, versus Indiana's current market cap of US$21mn.
Not surprisingly, the Tanzanian government is pushing back on the claim. The question is whether Indiana will ever get paid. And Indiana's not the only company seeking revocation retribution.


Tanzanian Reset And Indiana's Arbitration

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation period following significant price increases since November 2022.</li><li>Sentiment Update June was similar to May for the gold price, posting a modest 2.2% decline to $1,919.1/oz, while silver fell 3.1% to $22.8/oz, and copper increased 2.8% to $3.7/lb.</li><li>We believe the last two months of consolidation for precious metals and other commodities is healthy considering the significant increase in prices since November 2022.</li></ul>

What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation period following significant price increases since November 2022.Sentiment Update June was similar to May for the gold price, posting a modest 2.2% decline to $1,919.1/oz, while silver fell 3.1% to $22.8/oz, and copper increased 2.8% to $3.7/lb.We believe the last two months of consolidation for precious metals and other commodities is healthy considering the significant increase in prices since November 2022.

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a> is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. 
Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

United States

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (GOLD US)

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

Newmont Mining has run into a "perfect storm" of increasing negative correlation and increasing negative beta to gold vs Peers, and Newcrest...

Travis Lundy

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October

The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6...

Arun George

Tanzanian Reset And Indiana's Arbitration

This is a binary situation. IF you believe Indiana will see the bulk of the compensation, this is a buy. IF you believe Tanzanian will (somehow)...

David Blennerhassett

Mining Monthly: June Edition

What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation...

Atrium Research

Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. In this note, we undertake a quick peer...

Ethan Aw

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