Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.</li>
<li>The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.</li>
<li>With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.


Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.</li>
<li>For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.


Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-phip-updates-support-the-investment-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201970" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.</li>
<li>Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).</li>
<li>On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.</li>
</ul>


H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.


Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

United States

Barrick Mining Corporation is a mining company. The Company produces gold and copper, as well as operating mines and development projects. Barrick Mining serves customers worldwide.

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Barrick Mining (B US)

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

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Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

​Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...