Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.</li>
<li>The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility remains high in many sectors, but leadership changes are clear.
The technology sector continues to face challenges from the market 


Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

<ul>
<li>Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.</li>
<li>With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
<li>Our top large-cap pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>, and in the small and midcap space, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> and Wesdome Gold. </li>
</ul>


Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.
With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) at 10.8%.
Our top large-cap pick is Barrick Mining (B US), and in the small and midcap space, we like Apex Mining Co (APX PM) and Wesdome Gold. 


Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

United States

Barrick Mining Corporation is a mining company. The Company produces gold and copper, as well as operating mines and development projects. Barrick Mining serves customers worldwide.

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Barrick Mining (B US)

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

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Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

Overview #49 – The Return of the Real Economy

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. US data confirms the cyclical upturn, while China awaits the Two Sessions

Rikki Malik

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas