Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a> on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. </li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu (5019 JP)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS</a> for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.</li>
</ul>


Buy Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP) on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.
With ENN Energy (2688 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. 
Be long Idemitsu (5019 JP) vs ENEOS for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BASE Inc (4477 JP — US$234 million) is an e-commerce technology company based in Tokyo, Japan.</li><li>The software helps small merchants open stores online and manage their operations. BASE is often likened to “Shopify of Japan” due to similarities in their product offerings.</li><li>However, investors have become skeptical about BASE, with the stock now trading at just 0.8x EV/Sales — a massive discount to Shopify’s 13.3x.</li></ul>

BASE Inc (4477 JP — US$234 million) is an e-commerce technology company based in Tokyo, Japan.The software helps small merchants open stores online and manage their operations. BASE is often likened to “Shopify of Japan” due to similarities in their product offerings.However, investors have become skeptical about BASE, with the stock now trading at just 0.8x EV/Sales — a massive discount to Shopify’s 13.3x.

BASE Inc (4477 JP): “Shopify of Japan” at 0.8x EV/Sales

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>When just viewed as a shop building operator, Marui is a mid-sized property firm with a dependence on the Tokyo market. </li>
<li>Its consumer credit business has always been larger and transactions exceeded ¥3 trillion for the first time last year and should hit ¥5 trillion in  FY2025.</li>
<li>Marui also wants to leverage that data to better manage its buildings and identify fast growing businesses to invest in, resulting in more cross-use and growth businesses.</li>
</ul>


When just viewed as a shop building operator, Marui is a mid-sized property firm with a dependence on the Tokyo market. 
Its consumer credit business has always been larger and transactions exceeded ¥3 trillion for the first time last year and should hit ¥5 trillion in  FY2025.
Marui also wants to leverage that data to better manage its buildings and identify fast growing businesses to invest in, resulting in more cross-use and growth businesses.


Marui: Already a ¥3 Trillion Business but Aiming for ¥5 Trillion

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> is up more than 27% today as the Mothers Index bounced back 4.5% following a steep sell-off during the last one-month period.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, results were disappointing on both the top line and the bottom line with Q1 revenue and operating loss of ¥2,512m (consensus ¥2,659m) and ¥272m (consensus ¥139.2m) respectively.</li>
<li>After disappointing the market with a guidance range that was significantly below consensus in 2021, Base Inc has withheld from providing 2022 guidance.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) is up more than 27% today as the Mothers Index bounced back 4.5% following a steep sell-off during the last one-month period.
Nevertheless, results were disappointing on both the top line and the bottom line with Q1 revenue and operating loss of ¥2,512m (consensus ¥2,659m) and ¥272m (consensus ¥139.2m) respectively.
After disappointing the market with a guidance range that was significantly below consensus in 2021, Base Inc has withheld from providing 2022 guidance.


Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

<ul>
<li>Both management and consensus seem to think that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> will be able to maintain the COVID-19 growth trajectory beyond the COVID affected years.</li>
<li>However, investors seem more circumspect with shares currently trading around 90% below the peak level.</li>
<li>With the company likely failing to meet revenue targets and losses expanding exponentially, we think Base Inc could fall another 25-30% towards the pre-COVID level.</li>
</ul>


Both management and consensus seem to think that BASE Inc (4477 JP) will be able to maintain the COVID-19 growth trajectory beyond the COVID affected years.
However, investors seem more circumspect with shares currently trading around 90% below the peak level.
With the company likely failing to meet revenue targets and losses expanding exponentially, we think Base Inc could fall another 25-30% towards the pre-COVID level.


Japan

BASE, Inc. offers internet based services. The Company provides net shop creation, shopping application development, online payment development, and other services. BASE provides its services throughout Japan.

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BASE Inc (4477 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BASE Inc (4477 JP): “Shopify of Japan” at 0.8x EV/Sales

BASE Inc (4477 JP — US$234 million) is an e-commerce technology company based in Tokyo, Japan. The software helps small merchants open stores...

Asian Century Stocks

Marui: Already a ¥3 Trillion Business but Aiming for ¥5 Trillion

Marui is one of the few really solid bets in Japanese consumer/retail thanks to its mix of a leading consumer finance business and fast evolving...

Michael Causton

Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

With 27% upside, Base Inc seems to be moving back into the “Short” territory. However, we won’t consider an outright short position as the oversold...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Base Inc: Down, But Not Down Enough

With the company likely failing to meet consensus medium-term revenue targets and losses expanding exponentially through venturing into new...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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