European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.</li>
<li>The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.</li>
<li>We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.</li>
</ul>


Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.
The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.
We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.


EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sc-capital/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chris Redl (SC Capital)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sameer-taneja-a0539e0c-84dd-4e66-9c40-6e598edfb4c5/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sameer Taneja (Investics Research)</a>, who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=86304030271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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<p>Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.<br><br>Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.</p>
<p>Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.</p>

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts Chris Redl (SC Capital) and Sameer Taneja (Investics Research), who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.
The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.



Register for the Webinar here



Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.  Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.
Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<p>Caixin Explains: Why U.S.-traded Chinese firms are choosing dual primary listings in Hong Kong</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Update: Sichuan earthquake death toll rises to 66</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Too much state investment has a downside, investors warn</p>
</li>
</ul>



Caixin Explains: Why U.S.-traded Chinese firms are choosing dual primary listings in Hong Kong


Update: Sichuan earthquake death toll rises to 66


Too much state investment has a downside, investors warn



CX Daily: Why U.S.-Traded Chinese Firms Are Choosing Dual Primary Listings in Hong Kong

Germany

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)

EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

The EURO STOXX 50 September review is creating increasingly actionable index trades. Our pro-forma ranking and flow model identifies where the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

On 21 October 11am SGT, Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor will be joined Analysts Chris Redl and Sameer Taneja in an exciting discussion on the EV...

Smartkarma Research

CX Daily: Why U.S.-Traded Chinese Firms Are Choosing Dual Primary Listings in Hong Kong

Caixin Explains: Why U.S.-traded Chinese firms are choosing dual primary listings in Hong Kong. Update: Sichuan earthquake death toll rises to 66

Caixin Global

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