Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

Peyto Exploration & Dev / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Petro‑Provinces at Risk delivers a stark message investors: Canada’s oil‑ and gas‑dependent provinces are heading toward a structural fiscal crunch as global energy demand peaks and declines—and the downside risks to public finances far outweigh any remaining upside.</li><li>This research offers a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing how the energy transition threatens the very revenue streams provinces have long relied on, with high‑cost Canadian production especially exposed to falling prices, uneconomic new projects, and long‑cycle assets that are increasingly misaligned with future demand.</li><li> Crucially for investors, the report quantifies: 1.</li></ul>

Petro‑Provinces at Risk delivers a stark message investors: Canada’s oil‑ and gas‑dependent provinces are heading toward a structural fiscal crunch as global energy demand peaks and declines—and the downside risks to public finances far outweigh any remaining upside.This research offers a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing how the energy transition threatens the very revenue streams provinces have long relied on, with high‑cost Canadian production especially exposed to falling prices, uneconomic new projects, and long‑cycle assets that are increasingly misaligned with future demand. Crucially for investors, the report quantifies: 1.

Peyto Exploration & Dev Corp - Energy Transition: Canada - Petro-provinces at Risk

<ul><li>What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.</li><li>This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.</li><li>The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.</li></ul>

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

<ul><li>Fading Fortunes delivers a clear message investors cannot afford to ignore: Canada’s oil & gas growth story is structurally at odds with global energy realities—and the financial downside is far larger than the potential upside.</li><li>This research provides a rigorous, data-driven assessment showing that new upstream projects—especially oil sands, gas, LNG, exploration and long‑lead developments—are far more likely to destroy value than create it across nearly all plausible transition scenarios.</li><li>It demonstrates how Canadian producers face greater exposure to declining demand, higher breakevens, and longer asset lifespans than most global peers, placing both equity and credit holders at elevated risk.</li></ul>

Fading Fortunes delivers a clear message investors cannot afford to ignore: Canada’s oil & gas growth story is structurally at odds with global energy realities—and the financial downside is far larger than the potential upside.This research provides a rigorous, data-driven assessment showing that new upstream projects—especially oil sands, gas, LNG, exploration and long‑lead developments—are far more likely to destroy value than create it across nearly all plausible transition scenarios.It demonstrates how Canadian producers face greater exposure to declining demand, higher breakevens, and longer asset lifespans than most global peers, placing both equity and credit holders at elevated risk.

Peyto Exploration & Dev Corp - Energy Transition: Canada - Fading Fortunes

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Canada

Baytex Energy Corporation explores for and produces oil and natural gas.  The Company operates in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the United States.

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Baytex Energy (BTE CN)

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

Peyto Exploration & Dev Corp - Energy Transition: Canada - Petro-provinces at Risk

Petro‑Provinces at Risk delivers a stark message investors: Canada’s oil‑ and gas‑dependent provinces are heading toward a structural fiscal...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Peyto Exploration & Dev Corp - Energy Transition: Canada - Fading Fortunes

Fading Fortunes delivers a clear message investors cannot afford to ignore: Canada’s oil & gas growth story is structurally at odds with...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

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