Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark spread) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher output from increased rainfall and water flow).</li><li>We maintain our BUY call and 2026 FV at Bt10.00, as Valuation Metrics remain positive on the current valuation and stronger 2Y core EPS growth (+17% CAGR) versus peers, with neutral tactical risk.</li><li>3Q25 turned to a Bt627mn NP, in line with preview (vs. Bt28mn net loss in 3Q24 from a Bt480mn forex loss and Bt651mn net loss in 2Q25 from Bt673mn one-offs related to impairment loss in the Nabas project and EDL receivables).</li></ul>

3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark spread) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher output from increased rainfall and water flow).We maintain our BUY call and 2026 FV at Bt10.00, as Valuation Metrics remain positive on the current valuation and stronger 2Y core EPS growth (+17% CAGR) versus peers, with neutral tactical risk.3Q25 turned to a Bt627mn NP, in line with preview (vs. Bt28mn net loss in 3Q24 from a Bt480mn forex loss and Bt651mn net loss in 2Q25 from Bt673mn one-offs related to impairment loss in the Nabas project and EDL receivables).

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): Solid 3Q25 Profit As Expected From US CCGT...

<ul><li>We expect strong 3Q25E net and core profit both YoY and QoQ, driven by seasonal gains from the US CCGT plants (higher power generation and full-quarter capacity price increase), Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher power output), and new profit from the Monsoon wind farm.</li><li>We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR and limited tactical upside risk.</li><li>We maintain our 2026–27E core profit forecasts and 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR, driven by solid profit from the US CCGT plant (capacity rate rising to USD270/MW-day in 2025/26 and USD329/MW-day in 2026/27) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B. </li></ul>

We expect strong 3Q25E net and core profit both YoY and QoQ, driven by seasonal gains from the US CCGT plants (higher power generation and full-quarter capacity price increase), Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher power output), and new profit from the Monsoon wind farm.We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR and limited tactical upside risk.We maintain our 2026–27E core profit forecasts and 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR, driven by solid profit from the US CCGT plant (capacity rate rising to USD270/MW-day in 2025/26 and USD329/MW-day in 2026/27) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B. 

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): 3Q25E Profit Boosted By US CCGT; Solid 2Y Profit Expected

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>A positive market reaction to SK Hynix, South Korea's leading memory chipmaker, on the Nasdaq is expected to provide a positive sentiment boost for speculative buying in technology stocks across Asian markets.</li><li>Thailand is scheduled to hold trade talks with the US on July 15–17, with the aim of keeping the Section 301 import tariff at 10%.</li><li>The Thai baht is expected to strengthen toward Bt33.14 per US dollar, which could attract further foreign fund inflows.</li></ul>

A positive market reaction to SK Hynix, South Korea's leading memory chipmaker, on the Nasdaq is expected to provide a positive sentiment boost for speculative buying in technology stocks across Asian markets.Thailand is scheduled to hold trade talks with the US on July 15–17, with the aim of keeping the Section 301 import tariff at 10%.The Thai baht is expected to strengthen toward Bt33.14 per US dollar, which could attract further foreign fund inflows.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. July 13, 2026

<ul><li>(+) US June Nonfarm Payrolls came in at less than half of market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes and supporting risk appetite.</li><li>(+) We maintain our positive view on the banking sector, as its key supporting factors are expected to become more evident in 2H26.</li><li>The SET Index is likely to rebound and retest the 1,600 level, supported by easing concerns over further Fed rate hikes following weaker-than-expected US labor market data.</li></ul>

(+) US June Nonfarm Payrolls came in at less than half of market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes and supporting risk appetite.(+) We maintain our positive view on the banking sector, as its key supporting factors are expected to become more evident in 2H26.The SET Index is likely to rebound and retest the 1,600 level, supported by easing concerns over further Fed rate hikes following weaker-than-expected US labor market data.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Thai equity market has the potential to retest the 1,600 level, in line with gains across global markets (NASDAQ +1.5%, NIKKEI +0.5%, and TAIEX +1.5%).</li><li>The Cabinet has extended the reduction in property transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% through June 30, 2027, covering residential properties priced at up to Bt7mn.</li><li>PLANB has become a major shareholder of COM7 (TP: Bt31) after investing Bt7.2bn to acquire an 11% stake.</li></ul>

The Thai equity market has the potential to retest the 1,600 level, in line with gains across global markets (NASDAQ +1.5%, NIKKEI +0.5%, and TAIEX +1.5%).The Cabinet has extended the reduction in property transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% through June 30, 2027, covering residential properties priced at up to Bt7mn.PLANB has become a major shareholder of COM7 (TP: Bt31) after investing Bt7.2bn to acquire an 11% stake.

Thailand

BCPG is a leading renewable energy company in Asia-Pacific, involved in solar, hydropower, wind, and natural gas businesses. The company also provides smart energy solutions, including blockchain-based energy trading, energy management systems, district cooling, battery solutions, and decarbonization solutions. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, BCPG was founded on July 17, 2015.

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BCPG (BCPG TB)

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): Solid 3Q25 Profit As Expected From US CCGT...

3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): 3Q25E Profit Boosted By US CCGT; Solid 2Y Profit Expected

We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. July 13, 2026

A positive market reaction to SK Hynix, South Korea's leading memory chipmaker, on the Nasdaq is expected to provide a positive sentiment boost...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. July 3, 2026

(+) US June Nonfarm Payrolls came in at less than half of market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes and supporting...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. July 1, 2026

The Thai equity market has the potential to retest the 1,600 level, in line with gains across global markets (NASDAQ +1.5%, NIKKEI +0.5%, and TAIEX...

Krungthai XSpring

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