ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw in insights published on Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Avia Avian, Ultrajaya Milk, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Vinagame IPO, and a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-core-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35145:1" rel="noopener">Digital Core REIT</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-dc-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:85:1" rel="noopener">Keppel DC REIT</a> pair trade.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights looking at Thai political situation, and an insight looking at a more positive outlook for the Philippines, which investors remain dramatically underweight.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw in insights published on Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Avia Avian, Ultrajaya Milk, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Vinagame IPO, and a Digital Core REIT/Keppel DC REIT pair trade.
There were also macro insights looking at Thai political situation, and an insight looking at a more positive outlook for the Philippines, which investors remain dramatically underweight.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bank Rakyat Executing, Avia Avian, and Thai Politics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You could imagine people covering their short in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. </li>
<li>If you buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.</li>
<li>It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.</li>
</ul>


You could imagine people covering their short in Meituan (3690 HK) now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. 
If you buy Link Administration (LNK AU) outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.
It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the DTAC /True merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sm-investments-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20015:1" rel="noopener">SM Investments (SM PM)</a>, the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. </li>
<li>The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. </li>
</ul>



SM Investments (SM PM), the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.
The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 
The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. 


SM Investments (SM PM): Retail Income Now Exceeds Pre-Covid Levels

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Manila Electric Company / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jg-summit-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15747:1" rel="noopener">JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM)</a> aims to raise around US$185m via selling 2.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manila-electric-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3527:1" rel="noopener">Manila Electric Company (MER PM)</a> (Meralco) via a block trade.</li>
<li>This appears to be the first selldown by JG Summit and doesn’t appear to have been very well flagged either.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM) aims to raise around US$185m via selling 2.5% of Manila Electric Company (MER PM) (Meralco) via a block trade.
This appears to be the first selldown by JG Summit and doesn’t appear to have been very well flagged either.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.


Manila Electric Block - Selldown by One of the Largest Shareholders

Philippines

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

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BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bank Rakyat Executing, Avia Avian, and Thai Politics

The past week saw insights published on Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Avia Avian, Ultrajaya Milk, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Vinagame IPO, and a Digital...

Angus Mackintosh

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SM Investments (SM PM): Retail Income Now Exceeds Pre-Covid Levels

SMIC is benefitting from increased economic activity and buoyant consumer sentiment. Go outright long or hedge out SM Prime and BDO, in which the...

David Blennerhassett

Manila Electric Block - Selldown by One of the Largest Shareholders

JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM) aims to raise around US$185m via selling 2.5% of Manila Electric Company (MER PM) (Meralco) via a block trade.

Sumeet Singh

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