Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.</li>
<li>We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.
We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.
We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.</li>
<li>At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.</li>
<li>With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.</li>
</ul>


Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.
At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.
With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.


Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses

<ul>
<li>The Board’s unanimous rejection of 1,280p and reference to a prior 1,315p proposal publicly harden valuation expectations, signalling that further progress now depends squarely on Zurich improving terms.</li>
<li>At 1,116p, the market prices roughly 64% deal success, with the residual spread reflecting valuation pushback rather than financing, regulatory or bidder-credibility concerns.</li>
<li>Risk-Reward has shifted from binary spread capture toward probability arbitrage on valuation convergence, with upside capped by Zurich’s IRR discipline and downside cushioned by Beazley’s standalone fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


The Board’s unanimous rejection of 1,280p and reference to a prior 1,315p proposal publicly harden valuation expectations, signalling that further progress now depends squarely on Zurich improving terms.
At 1,116p, the market prices roughly 64% deal success, with the residual spread reflecting valuation pushback rather than financing, regulatory or bidder-credibility concerns.
Risk-Reward has shifted from binary spread capture toward probability arbitrage on valuation convergence, with upside capped by Zurich’s IRR discipline and downside cushioned by Beazley’s standalone fundamentals.


Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

<ul>
<li>Zurich’s 1,280p cash offer reflects valuation normalisation rather than exuberance, exploiting Beazley’s pre-bid mispricing despite high-teens RoTE, structural specialty growth and a fundamentally strong underwriting franchise.</li>
<li>With shares at 1,126p implying a 66% probability of deal completion, the opportunity has shifted from binary spread capture to probability arbitrage on valuation convergence into the PUSU deadline.</li>
<li>Upside beyond 1,280p is rationally capped around 1,330–1,380p by Zurich’s IRR discipline, while downside to 820p remains cushioned by Beazley’s standalone quality and balance-sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Zurich’s 1,280p cash offer reflects valuation normalisation rather than exuberance, exploiting Beazley’s pre-bid mispricing despite high-teens RoTE, structural specialty growth and a fundamentally strong underwriting franchise.
With shares at 1,126p implying a 66% probability of deal completion, the opportunity has shifted from binary spread capture to probability arbitrage on valuation convergence into the PUSU deadline.
Upside beyond 1,280p is rationally capped around 1,330–1,380p by Zurich’s IRR discipline, while downside to 820p remains cushioned by Beazley’s standalone quality and balance-sheet strength.


Zurich–Beazley: Premium Priced, But Still Underwritten

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

United Kingdom

Beazley is a British multinational specialist insurance and reinsurance company. It underwrites complex and specialist risks across diverse sectors such as cyber, marine, aviation, property, political risks, contingency, and professional liability. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1986.

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Beazley (BEZ LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

Airtel Money could become a strong name for the F100 inclusion in December 2026. We also see Serica Energy as an F250 ADD if it transfers to the...

Afridi Reyal

Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses

Zurich and Beazley have agreed terms in principle at up to 1,335p. With shares at 1,254p, the ~6% spread implies ~84% success and ~19.5% annualised...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

Beazley has rejected Zurich’s 1,280p bid, anchoring valuation higher. At 1,116p the market implies ~64% success, framing the trade as probability...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zurich–Beazley: Premium Priced, But Still Underwritten

Zurich’s 1,280p bid for Beazley prices valuation normalisation, not excess. At 1,126p the 154p spread (~12% of offer) implies ~66%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

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