Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. </p><p>For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). </p><p>Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.</p><p><strong>This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade.</strong> </p><p>Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   </p>

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Key events in Japanese retailing this week include Muji raising forecasts for this FY and opening its biggest store ever, at 8,500 sqm as it goes after the food market.</li>
<li>LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos in a bid to capture more of the fast-expanding cross-border e-commerce market.</li>
<li>Fast growing, and Zozo-owned, online mall Yutori buys a cosmetics brand and in a sign of the serous labour shortage, Familymart moves to single manager franchises.</li>
</ul>


Key events in Japanese retailing this week include Muji raising forecasts for this FY and opening its biggest store ever, at 8,500 sqm as it goes after the food market.
LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos in a bid to capture more of the fast-expanding cross-border e-commerce market.
Fast growing, and Zozo-owned, online mall Yutori buys a cosmetics brand and in a sign of the serous labour shortage, Familymart moves to single manager franchises.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Higher Yields and Lower Equities as Major US Indices were lower; Focus on Jackson Hole Speech from Powell; Fed Collins Hints at hikes; Boeing Supply Issues. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash; Gasoline reachs 15 year high - govt considers subsidies; Boon from Yen for Japan Majors. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Farewell to lifetime employment ?   Japan's workers are embracing job hopping. This is driving higher wages as labor get reallocated to higher value added roles.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Higher Yields and Lower Equities as Major US Indices were lower; Focus on Jackson Hole Speech from Powell; Fed Collins Hints at hikes; Boeing Supply Issues. 
JAPAN. NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash; Gasoline reachs 15 year high - govt considers subsidies; Boon from Yen for Japan Majors. 
JAPAN X: Farewell to lifetime employment ?   Japan's workers are embracing job hopping. This is driving higher wages as labor get reallocated to higher value added roles.


Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/854/original/2020-09-09_04-55-21.png?1599594979" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157854"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stream-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10256:1" rel="noopener">Stream (3071 JP)</a></strong>- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/855/original/2020-09-09_05-01-17.png?1599595294" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157855"></figure><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p><strong>NET POSITIVE</strong> - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. </p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> 1.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue</strong>: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.2 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</li>
</ul></div><div>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div>

Source for all charts: Japan AnalyticsStream (3071 JP)- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   

DAILY STATS
NET POSITIVE - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. 10 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative

Average Results Score Change: 1.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.2 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%





🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li><strong>For May 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$27bn. </strong></li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~28%, with a year-to-date average of 49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For May 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$27bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~28%, with a year-to-date average of 49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2025 Wrap: NTT Data, ZEEKR, MAC Copper, Torii, Mitsu. Shokuhin, SBI Sumishin

Japan

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Beenos Inc (3328 JP)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan's Retail Week

Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

Higher Yields, Tech Sell Off Ahead of Powell's Speech; NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash;...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2025 Wrap: NTT Data, ZEEKR, MAC Copper, Torii, Mitsu. Shokuhin, SBI Sumishin

For the month of May, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$27bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan's Retail Week

​Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

Higher Yields, Tech Sell Off Ahead of Powell's Speech; NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash;...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2025 Wrap: NTT Data, ZEEKR, MAC Copper, Torii, Mitsu. Shokuhin, SBI Sumishin

For the month of May, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$27bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos