Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> has clarified that Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder, is contemplating a possible transaction through a voluntary general offer.</li>
<li>However, the rumoured offer of HK$35 per share is false. Mr Geiger has confirmed that the potential offer price would be no less than HK$26.00 per share.</li>
<li>The floor price of HK$26 is light and needs a bump (towards HK$30), particularly if Mr Geiger wants 95% of voting rights to exercise the right of compulsory acquisition (squeeze-out).</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, L'Occitane (973 HK) has clarified that Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder, is contemplating a possible transaction through a voluntary general offer.
However, the rumoured offer of HK$35 per share is false. Mr Geiger has confirmed that the potential offer price would be no less than HK$26.00 per share.
The floor price of HK$26 is light and needs a bump (towards HK$30), particularly if Mr Geiger wants 95% of voting rights to exercise the right of compulsory acquisition (squeeze-out).


L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raytheon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6453:1" rel="noopener">Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beiersdorf-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21588:1" rel="noopener">Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-slide-works-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7130:1" rel="noopener">King Slide Works (2059 TT)</a> 
</li>
<li>For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) 

For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms
Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . 


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackberry-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1" rel="noopener">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a> </li>
<li>For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kimberly Clark (KMB US) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN) 
For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms
For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

Germany

Beiersdorf AG develops, manufactures, and markets personal care, disposable medical, and adhesive products. The Company produces skin and hair care products, bandages, surgical gloves, compression stockings, sun block lotion, fastening systems, masking products, and packaging systems.

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Beiersdorf (BEI GR)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

Reinold Geiger is contemplating a possible transaction through a VGO at a floor offer price of HK$26. The floor price is light if Mr Geiger wants...

Arun George

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

The small-Cap (+4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) portfolios continues to outperform respective benchmarks, but the willful omission of mega-tech names has...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

Reinold Geiger is contemplating a possible transaction through a VGO at a floor offer price of HK$26. The floor price is light if Mr Geiger wants...

Arun George

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

The small-Cap (+4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) portfolios continues to outperform respective benchmarks, but the willful omission of mega-tech names has...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...