HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.</li>
<li>BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.</li>
<li>There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.
BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

<ul>
<li>Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.</li>
<li>The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. </li>
</ul>


Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.
The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.
BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.</li>
<li>FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. </li>
<li>Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. 
Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Celltrion is acquiring a biopharmaceutical production plant in the U.S. capable of producing key biopharmaceuticals. Alteogen received positive opinion from European Medicines Agency for its Eylea biosimilar.</li>
<li>Wuxi Biologics has begun construction for new modular Drug Product facility in Singapore. CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, for its oral GLP-1 drug candidate.</li>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals has entered into agreements with GlaxoSmithKline, to grant GSK an exclusive worldwide right (excluding China) of HRS-9821 and up to 11 other programs.</li>
</ul>


Celltrion is acquiring a biopharmaceutical production plant in the U.S. capable of producing key biopharmaceuticals. Alteogen received positive opinion from European Medicines Agency for its Eylea biosimilar.
Wuxi Biologics has begun construction for new modular Drug Product facility in Singapore. CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, for its oral GLP-1 drug candidate.
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals has entered into agreements with GlaxoSmithKline, to grant GSK an exclusive worldwide right (excluding China) of HRS-9821 and up to 11 other programs.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion, Alteogen, Wuxi Bio, CSPC, Jiangsu Hengrui, Eisai, Kissei

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeOne (ONC US)

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion, Alteogen, Wuxi Bio, CSPC, Jiangsu Hengrui, Eisai, Kissei

Celltrion is acquiring a biopharmaceutical production plant in US. Wuxi Bio starts construction of new facility. CSPC and Jiangsu Hengrui stuck...

Tina Banerjee

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

​BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

​Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 3)– Celltrion, Alteogen, Wuxi Bio, CSPC, Jiangsu Hengrui, Eisai, Kissei

Celltrion is acquiring a biopharmaceutical production plant in US. Wuxi Bio starts construction of new facility. CSPC and Jiangsu Hengrui stuck...

Tina Banerjee

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...