Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in March means we remain at 83 members.</li>
<li>Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).</li>
</ul>


We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March means we remain at 83 members.
Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?
Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.</li>
<li>The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.</li>
<li>Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.</li>
</ul>


Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.
The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.
Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

Equity Capital Markets

Nanjing Leads Biolabs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>After PD-1/L1, we haven’t seen the next successful/reliable immune checkpoint emerges due to issues on efficacy/safety profile. So, for 4-1BB/LAG3, we’re worried about the druggability or future commercialization after approval.</li>
<li>In Leads Biolabs' pipeline, we think the future highlight may still lie in CD3, since the mechanism by which TCR/CD3 is used to activate T cells is well validated.</li>
<li>After Series C+ Financing, the post investment valuation has exceeded RMB3 billion.If the pipeline development progresses smoothly, Leads Biolabs’ valuation would surpass peers in the future due to better outlook.</li>
</ul>


After PD-1/L1, we haven’t seen the next successful/reliable immune checkpoint emerges due to issues on efficacy/safety profile. So, for 4-1BB/LAG3, we’re worried about the druggability or future commercialization after approval.
In Leads Biolabs' pipeline, we think the future highlight may still lie in CD3, since the mechanism by which TCR/CD3 is used to activate T cells is well validated.
After Series C+ Financing, the post investment valuation has exceeded RMB3 billion.If the pipeline development progresses smoothly, Leads Biolabs’ valuation would surpass peers in the future due to better outlook.


Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs - The Future Prospects of the Pipeline Are Worth Looking Forward To

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

We expect China Resources Power (836 HK) to get added and Li Ning (2331 HK) to get deleted. Both names have more than 1x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

Promoting VBP in retail pharmacy may harm valuation.Biotech funding gap widens, investors advised to focus on leading companies. Vesync is a good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs - The Future Prospects of the Pipeline Are Worth Looking Forward To

Despite challenges with immune checkpoint therapies, Leads Biolabs sees potential in CD3 for future success. If R&D progresses smoothly, valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

We expect China Resources Power (836 HK) to get added and Li Ning (2331 HK) to get deleted. Both names have more than 1x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

Promoting VBP in retail pharmacy may harm valuation.Biotech funding gap widens, investors advised to focus on leading companies. Vesync is a good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs - The Future Prospects of the Pipeline Are Worth Looking Forward To

​Despite challenges with immune checkpoint therapies, Leads Biolabs sees potential in CD3 for future success. If R&D progresses smoothly, valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Despite challenges with immune checkpoint therapies, Leads Biolabs sees potential in CD3 for future success. If R&D progresses smoothly, valuation...