Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.</li>
<li>The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a> are the largest buys. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongan-online-p-c-insurance-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23681:1" rel="noopener">ZhongAn Online</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent </a>are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).

Meituan ,  JD.com, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, ICBC, BeiGene, Kuaishou Technology and China Construction Bank are the largest buys. Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSBC, ZhongAn Online and Tencent are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.</li>
<li>Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.</li>
<li>US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.
Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.
US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.</li>
<li>After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.</li>
<li>Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.
After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.
Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. </li>
<li>Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.</li>
<li>Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, BeiGene (6160 HK) reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. 
Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.
Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.


BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ono Pharmaceutical received FDA approval for Romvimza for the treatment of symptomatic tenosynovial giant cell tumor. Shionogi obtains domestic approval for digital therapeutic app, Endeavorride for ADHD.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics received FDA and European Commission approval for Prolia biosimilar. Celltrion received European approval for Prolia and Eylea biosimilars. Cosette Pharmaceuticals is acquiring Mayne Pharma for A$7.40 per share.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive license to Radiance Biopharma to develop and commercialize antibody drug conjugates SYS6005 in selected geographies. Cipla received FDA approval for anti-cancer drug Nilotinib capsules.</li>
</ul>


Ono Pharmaceutical received FDA approval for Romvimza for the treatment of symptomatic tenosynovial giant cell tumor. Shionogi obtains domestic approval for digital therapeutic app, Endeavorride for ADHD.
Samsung Biologics received FDA and European Commission approval for Prolia biosimilar. Celltrion received European approval for Prolia and Eylea biosimilars. Cosette Pharmaceuticals is acquiring Mayne Pharma for A$7.40 per share.
CSPC Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive license to Radiance Biopharma to develop and commercialize antibody drug conjugates SYS6005 in selected geographies. Cipla received FDA approval for anti-cancer drug Nilotinib capsules.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 23)- Ono Pharma, Shionogi, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, CSPC, Mayne

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 23)- Ono Pharma, Shionogi, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, CSPC, Mayne

APAC healthcare companies continued to get approvals for new products and initiates clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

​BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

​BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 23)- Ono Pharma, Shionogi, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, CSPC, Mayne

APAC healthcare companies continued to get approvals for new products and initiates clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and...

Tina Banerjee

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...