HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hengrui's high growth in 2024/25Q1 mainly relies on the realization of BD cooperation. The short-term performance improvement cannot conceal the long-term pressure. The turning point of endogenous growth hasn't arrived.</li>
<li>Hengrui would continue to be affected by VBP. The generic drug business is “outdated”, whose valuation contribution is negligible. The BD model will lead to significant fluctuations in performance.</li>
<li>Our forecast is net profit YoY growth in 2025-2027 would fall back to 15-20%. Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene and Hansoh in Hong Kong stock market.</li>
</ul>


Hengrui's high growth in 2024/25Q1 mainly relies on the realization of BD cooperation. The short-term performance improvement cannot conceal the long-term pressure. The turning point of endogenous growth hasn't arrived.
Hengrui would continue to be affected by VBP. The generic drug business is “outdated”, whose valuation contribution is negligible. The BD model will lead to significant fluctuations in performance.
Our forecast is net profit YoY growth in 2025-2027 would fall back to 15-20%. Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene and Hansoh in Hong Kong stock market.


Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> (JHP), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">JHP</a>  has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and provide our thoughts on the possible A/H premium.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) (JHP), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.

JHP  has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and provide our thoughts on the possible A/H premium.


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing - Recent Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas, Ping An.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas, Ping An.


HSCEI Earning Revision Analysis (Apr): CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas, Ping An

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Prescription drug sales in Japan in FY25 increased 0.6% YoY to ¥10.8T on an NHI price basis. Takeda Pharmaceutical and Daiichi Sankyo remained the top 2 pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics signed $514M CDMO deal with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Celltrion has received approval in Korea to conduct phase 3 clinical trial for its Keytruda biosimilar candidate CT-P51.</li>
<li>Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories expands its strategic partnership with Sanofi to introduce RSV drug, Beyfortus in India. Medanta is entering North-East India by building a 400-bed super specialty hospital in Guwahati.</li>
</ul>


Prescription drug sales in Japan in FY25 increased 0.6% YoY to ¥10.8T on an NHI price basis. Takeda Pharmaceutical and Daiichi Sankyo remained the top 2 pharmaceutical companies.
Samsung Biologics signed $514M CDMO deal with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Celltrion has received approval in Korea to conduct phase 3 clinical trial for its Keytruda biosimilar candidate CT-P51.
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories expands its strategic partnership with Sanofi to introduce RSV drug, Beyfortus in India. Medanta is entering North-East India by building a 400-bed super specialty hospital in Guwahati.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 4)- Takeda Pharma, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Dr. Reddy’s, Medanta

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 87.8% as of Apr 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, energy and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 87.8% as of Apr 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, energy and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing - Recent Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

The company has now filed its PHIP and is said to be pre-marketing with an aim to launch the deal in the coming week. Although it would have to...

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Earning Revision Analysis (Apr): CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas, Ping An

We analyzed HSCEI component's consensus for the past month and highlighted changes of EPS in CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 4)- Takeda Pharma, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Dr. Reddy’s, Medanta

Takeda retained top slot in domestic market. Samsung Biologics signed major CDMO deal with US client. Celltrion got approval to start trial of...

Tina Banerjee

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Hengrui's growth in 2024/25Q1 hinges on BD cooperation, but long-term pressure remains. VBP will lead to future performance decline. Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing - Recent Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

The company has now filed its PHIP and is said to be pre-marketing with an aim to launch the deal in the coming week. Although it would have to...

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Earning Revision Analysis (Apr): CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas, Ping An

We analyzed HSCEI component's consensus for the past month and highlighted changes of EPS in CCB, Sinopec, BOC, Petrochina, CNOOC, China Overseas,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 4)- Takeda Pharma, Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Dr. Reddy’s, Medanta

Takeda retained top slot in domestic market. Samsung Biologics signed major CDMO deal with US client. Celltrion got approval to start trial of...

Tina Banerjee

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hengrui's growth in 2024/25Q1 hinges on BD cooperation, but long-term pressure remains. VBP will lead to future performance decline. Valuation...