Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July </li>
<li>We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target</li>
</ul>


July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels
Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July 
We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Shanghai International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese airports are enjoying a steady passenger traffic growth of 5% YTD; Shenzhen and Shanghai airports are growing much faster.  </li>
<li>Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)is our top pick given its size, liquidity, strong balance sheet, and its strong earnings growth potential.  </li>
<li>Our target price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a> is CNY44, pegged to global airport peer average FY25 EV/EBITDA of 12x.   </li>
</ul>


Chinese airports are enjoying a steady passenger traffic growth of 5% YTD; Shenzhen and Shanghai airports are growing much faster.  
Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)is our top pick given its size, liquidity, strong balance sheet, and its strong earnings growth potential.  
Our target price for Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) is CNY44, pegged to global airport peer average FY25 EV/EBITDA of 12x.   


Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH | BUY | TP:CNY44): Slow but Steady Earnings Recovery

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA)

<ul>
<li>Market's muted response to the airport's worse-than-expected 1H24 losses suggest investors are looking beyond.</li>
<li>While non-aviation businesses will remain under pressure in the near-term, potential for earnings growth from fare hike could be significant and is not at all reflected at current valuation.</li>
<li>Free cash flow turning positive in 2024 also open to door for restoring dividend payments, which will be another catalyst for stock re-rating. Risk reward payoff gets increasingly positive.   </li>
</ul>


Market's muted response to the airport's worse-than-expected 1H24 losses suggest investors are looking beyond.
While non-aviation businesses will remain under pressure in the near-term, potential for earnings growth from fare hike could be significant and is not at all reflected at current valuation.
Free cash flow turning positive in 2024 also open to door for restoring dividend payments, which will be another catalyst for stock re-rating. Risk reward payoff gets increasingly positive.   


BCIA (694 HK): Risk Reward Payoff Gets Increasingly Attractive

<ul>
<li>Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels</li>
<li>Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY</li>
</ul>


Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels
Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels
Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

<ul>
<li>Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow</li>
<li>Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June</li>
<li>Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY</li>
</ul>


Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow
Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June
Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

China

Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited operates both aeronautical and non-aeronautical business in the Beijing airport.  The Company provides aircraft movement and passenger service facilities, safety and security services, fire-fighting services, and ground handling services.  In addition, Beijing Capital operates duty free and other retail shops and leases properties.

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

July data shows continuing improvement in Chinese outbound and domestic travel activity. We still like shares of Trip.com, and retain our BUY...

Tracking Traffic

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH | BUY | TP:CNY44): Slow but Steady Earnings Recovery

Chinese airports are enjoying steady passenger traffic growth and a good proxy for travel recovery. Our top pick among the six listed Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

BCIA (694 HK): Risk Reward Payoff Gets Increasingly Attractive

Market's muted response to weaker-than-expected 1H24 preliminary results suggest investors are looking beyond. Potential price hikes and resumption...

Eric Chen

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its sluggish recovery in June, but remains far below 2019 levels. Tourism-linked shares have performed...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

May outbound Chinese travel demand was strong, apparently driven by tourists shifting flying outside the Asian region. Domestic demand growth also...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

July data shows continuing improvement in Chinese outbound and domestic travel activity. We still like shares of Trip.com, and retain our BUY...

Tracking Traffic

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH | BUY | TP:CNY44): Slow but Steady Earnings Recovery

​Chinese airports are enjoying steady passenger traffic growth and a good proxy for travel recovery. Our top pick among the six listed Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

BCIA (694 HK): Risk Reward Payoff Gets Increasingly Attractive

Market's muted response to weaker-than-expected 1H24 preliminary results suggest investors are looking beyond. Potential price hikes and resumption...

Eric Chen

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its sluggish recovery in June, but remains far below 2019 levels. Tourism-linked shares have performed...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

May outbound Chinese travel demand was strong, apparently driven by tourists shifting flying outside the Asian region. Domestic demand growth also...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese airports are enjoying steady passenger traffic growth and a good proxy for travel recovery. Our top pick among the six listed Chinese...