Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We have highlighted Hong Kong Conncect flows for CNOOC and Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We have highlighted Hong Kong Conncect flows for CNOOC and Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.</li>
<li>The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International (308 HK)</a> have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.</li>
</ul>


China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.
The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) and China Travel International (308 HK) have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.


China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

China

Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited operates both aeronautical and non-aeronautical business in the Beijing airport.  The Company provides aircraft movement and passenger service facilities, safety and security services, fire-fighting services, and ground handling services.  In addition, Beijing Capital operates duty free and other retail shops and leases properties.

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA)

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Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong kong weekly flows for CNOOC and Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

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