Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,433/1,438 points and the support at 1,419/1,405 points (based on the 5-day and 10-day EMA).</li><li>We anticipate the USD to strengthen in the short term against Asian currencies, which could weaken the Thai baht and exert downward pressure on Asian stock markets.</li><li>We recommend CENTEL, BDMS and TFG.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,433/1,438 points and the support at 1,419/1,405 points (based on the 5-day and 10-day EMA).We anticipate the USD to strengthen in the short term against Asian currencies, which could weaken the Thai baht and exert downward pressure on Asian stock markets.We recommend CENTEL, BDMS and TFG.

Weekly Outlook: Volatile (Sell When the Index Gains and Buy When It Falls)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years, but compared to offline advertising this performance is relatively more resilient.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, the online advertising market has been showing recovery signs since 3Q22.</li><li>Online ad market revenue returned to positive 6.5% YoY growth in November 2022. Given the pace of economic recovery, we expect online ads sector should deliver strong rebound from 2Q23E onwards. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years, but compared to offline advertising this performance is relatively more resilient.On a QoQ basis, the online advertising market has been showing recovery signs since 3Q22.Online ad market revenue returned to positive 6.5% YoY growth in November 2022. Given the pace of economic recovery, we expect online ads sector should deliver strong rebound from 2Q23E onwards. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – China Online Advertising: Onset for Gradual Recovery in 2023E

<div><ul><li>Competition on user time spend intensified in 3Q22. Per MoonFox data, in 3Q22, average number of apps installed per capita was 74 in 3Q22, up from 71 in 2Q22 and 66 in 3Q21, while average user time spend per capita per day on apps was 5.4 hours, flat QoQ and declined 0.1 hour YoY, indicating an intensifying competition on user time spend.</li><li>Leading internet giants are enlarging their shares in user time spend: combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 68.5%; Jun 2022: 68.4%).</li><li>Tencent related apps grew its share in user time spend to 28.3% in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 26.7%; June 2022: 27.5%), which in our view could be attributed to the robust ramp-up of Video Accounts, indicating additional monetization opportunities ahead.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Competition on user time spend intensified in 3Q22. Per MoonFox data, in 3Q22, average number of apps installed per capita was 74 in 3Q22, up from 71 in 2Q22 and 66 in 3Q21, while average user time spend per capita per day on apps was 5.4 hours, flat QoQ and declined 0.1 hour YoY, indicating an intensifying competition on user time spend.Leading internet giants are enlarging their shares in user time spend: combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 68.5%; Jun 2022: 68.4%).Tencent related apps grew its share in user time spend to 28.3% in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 26.7%; June 2022: 27.5%), which in our view could be attributed to the robust ramp-up of Video Accounts, indicating additional monetization opportunities ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 industry data trend recap

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,377 points (10-day EMA)/1,365 points and the resistance at 1,388 points (50-day EMA)/1,392 points.</li><li>However, if the index falls below the major support at 1,377 points (10-day EMA) after yesterday failing to surpass the major resistance at 1,388 points (50-day EMA), a sell signal will be triggered.</li><li>Consequently, during the FOMC meeting in March 2024, it is conceivable that the Fed may revise down its interest rate outlook through its dot plot, potentially signaling just one rate cut in 2024E, contrary to the current forecast calling for three rate cuts.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,377 points (10-day EMA)/1,365 points and the resistance at 1,388 points (50-day EMA)/1,392 points.However, if the index falls below the major support at 1,377 points (10-day EMA) after yesterday failing to surpass the major resistance at 1,388 points (50-day EMA), a sell signal will be triggered.Consequently, during the FOMC meeting in March 2024, it is conceivable that the Fed may revise down its interest rate outlook through its dot plot, potentially signaling just one rate cut in 2024E, contrary to the current forecast calling for three rate cuts.

<ul><li>Meta hosted the Meta Connect 2022 on 11 Oct, launching its first high-end VR headset Meta Quest Pro.</li><li>The new VR headset will begin shipping on 25 October for US$1,499.99.</li><li>With innovative features like pancake lenses, eye tracking, natural facial expressions and colour passthrough, Meta Quest Pro will meaningfully enhance the social/gaming/work VR experience in our view.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meta hosted the Meta Connect 2022 on 11 Oct, launching its first high-end VR headset Meta Quest Pro.The new VR headset will begin shipping on 25 October for US$1,499.99.With innovative features like pancake lenses, eye tracking, natural facial expressions and colour passthrough, Meta Quest Pro will meaningfully enhance the social/gaming/work VR experience in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – Meta Connect 2022: bridging the gap towards metaverse

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

Weekly Outlook: Volatile (Sell When the Index Gains and Buy When It Falls)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,433/1,438 points and the support at 1,419/1,405 points (based...

Krungthai XSpring

China Internet – China Online Advertising: Onset for Gradual Recovery in 2023E

China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years

CMB International

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 industry data trend recap

Combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep...

CMB International

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,377 points (10-day EMA)/1,365 points and the resistance at 1,388 points...

Krungthai XSpring

China Internet Sector – Meta Connect 2022: bridging the gap towards metaverse

With innovative features like pancake lenses, eye tracking, natural facial expressions and colour passthrough, Meta Quest Pro will meaningfully...

CMB International

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