Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen the STAR Market eligible universe ahead of the STAR50 Sep 2026 review.</li>
<li>Four stocks stand out as high-conviction ADDs this cycle, all with clear rank cushions.</li>
<li>We expect 3 high-conviction DELETEs and 2 mid-conviction DELETEs due to their proximity to the edge of DELETE zone.</li>
</ul>


We screen the STAR Market eligible universe ahead of the STAR50 Sep 2026 review.
Four stocks stand out as high-conviction ADDs this cycle, all with clear rank cushions.
We expect 3 high-conviction DELETEs and 2 mid-conviction DELETEs due to their proximity to the edge of DELETE zone.


Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY, SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHANGHAI ALLIST PHARMACEUTICALS, TRANSSION, Kingsoft Office Software, MONTAGE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY, SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHANGHAI ALLIST PHARMACEUTICALS, TRANSSION, Kingsoft Office Software, MONTAGE.


STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Xiamen Tungsten Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 June 2026 added 19 stocks and deleted 19. With all post-implementation windows complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.</li>
<li>ADDs rose broadly in the first implementation week. The historical fade read was offset by a stronger CSI 300 tape and tungsten-specific newsflow. Weeks 2 to 4 reversed the gains.</li>
<li>DELETEs fell in the first week and drifted lower in weeks 2 to 4. The direction matched history, and the losses were milder than in prior cycles.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 June 2026 added 19 stocks and deleted 19. With all post-implementation windows complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
ADDs rose broadly in the first implementation week. The historical fade read was offset by a stronger CSI 300 tape and tungsten-specific newsflow. Weeks 2 to 4 reversed the gains.
DELETEs fell in the first week and drifted lower in weeks 2 to 4. The direction matched history, and the losses were milder than in prior cycles.


CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

China

Beijing Roborock Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells household vacuum cleaners. The Company researches, develops, and produces robotic home cleaners and other cleaning appliances. Beijing Roborock Technology also manufactures and sells household appliance parts.

Price Gauge
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Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

STAR50 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 High Conviction ADDs and 1 Mid Conviction ADD, against 3 High Conviction DELETEs and 2 Mid Conviction DELETEs on rank shortfall depth.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ninebot (689009 CH), METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (688802 CH), BEIJING...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

CSI 300 June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation month. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

STAR50 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 High Conviction ADDs and 1 Mid Conviction ADD, against 3 High Conviction DELETEs and 2 Mid Conviction DELETEs on rank shortfall depth.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ninebot (689009 CH), METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (688802 CH), BEIJING...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

CSI 300 June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation month. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...