HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Clover Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Clover is placing 128 million shares, raising an estimated HK$500.5 million in net proceeds, which was released right after Clover’s lead COVID-19 vaccine was included for emergency use in China.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine would be the only hope for Clover in the short term. There could be big upside potential in share price if this vaccine could be successfully commercialized.</li>
<li>After Clover successfully develops a vaccine and goes through the whole commercialization process, it won’t be at the same level as those enterprises with no commercial products on the market.</li>
</ul>


Clover is placing 128 million shares, raising an estimated HK$500.5 million in net proceeds, which was released right after Clover’s lead COVID-19 vaccine was included for emergency use in China.
The COVID-19 vaccine would be the only hope for Clover in the short term. There could be big upside potential in share price if this vaccine could be successfully commercialized.
After Clover successfully develops a vaccine and goes through the whole commercialization process, it won’t be at the same level as those enterprises with no commercial products on the market.


Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197.HK) Placement - A Good Bet

Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

<ul>
<li>Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.</li>
<li>The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.</li>
<li>Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.
The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.
Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.


Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

<ul>
<li>Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.</li>
<li>The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. </li>
<li>The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.</li>
</ul>


Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.
The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. 
The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.


Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

Jiangsu Recbio Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In recent years, driven by global public health event such as COVID-19, vaccine R&amp;D and production have gradually attracted wide attention in the market. More and more vaccine companies have begun to develop innovative vaccines with the support of capital, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-recbio-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33810:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Recbio Technology (JRT HK)</a> is one of them. On July 16, 2021, Recbio submitted its prospectus to the HKEX for the application of listing on the main board. This insight mainly analyzed the industry characteristics, the pipeline and related concerns of the Company.</p>

In recent years, driven by global public health event such as COVID-19, vaccine R&amp;D and production have gradually attracted wide attention in the market. More and more vaccine companies have begun to develop innovative vaccines with the support of capital, and Jiangsu Recbio Technology (JRT HK) is one of them. On July 16, 2021, Recbio submitted its prospectus to the HKEX for the application of listing on the main board. This insight mainly analyzed the industry characteristics, the pipeline and related concerns of the Company.

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Recbio Technology - There Are Many Uncertainties

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)

<p>By the end of July 13, 2021, the stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH) </a>was closed at RMB279.1/share, up 3090% compared with its IPO price (RMB8.75/share) in April, 2020. Last week, Wantai announced that its wholly-owned IVD subsidiary planned to invest RMB1.336 billion to build a new industrial base. After the completion of the project, it will have a reagent production capacity of 500 million persons per year and a inspection equipment production capacity of 9000 units/year. This insight mainly analyzed the outlook of Wantai’s IVD business and its core HPV vaccine business and the related concerns.</p>

By the end of July 13, 2021, the stock price of Beijing Wantai Biological-A (603392 CH) was closed at RMB279.1/share, up 3090% compared with its IPO price (RMB8.75/share) in April, 2020. Last week, Wantai announced that its wholly-owned IVD subsidiary planned to invest RMB1.336 billion to build a new industrial base. After the completion of the project, it will have a reagent production capacity of 500 million persons per year and a inspection equipment production capacity of 9000 units/year. This insight mainly analyzed the outlook of Wantai’s IVD business and its core HPV vaccine business and the related concerns.

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392.CH) - How to Support Its High Valuation?

China

Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces enzyme linked immunodiagnostic reagents, colloidal gold rapid diagnostic reagents, vaccines, biochemical reagents, and other products. Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise also produces diagnostic equipment.

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Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)

Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197.HK) Placement - A Good Bet

The commercialization of COVID-19 vaccine opens a new chapter for Clover.Share price would have big upside potential if the COVID-19 vaccine can...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Zhifei’s HPV vaccine will face real risk as competing products launch from 2024. The real potential of China HPV vaccine market is much lower than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

WHO’s recommendation on HPV vaccines is not the biggest risk of Zhifei and won't affect short-term performance, but the valuation logic...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Recbio Technology - There Are Many Uncertainties

This article mainly analyzed Recbio Technology in terms of the vaccine industry characteristics, core product candidates (HPV vaccines, COVID-19...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392.CH) - How to Support Its High Valuation?

This article mainly analyzed Wantai in terms of the two core business IVD and HPV vaccine, their business outlook, the market pattern and the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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