Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. </li><li>The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.</li><li>Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).</li></ul>

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

<ul><li>The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;</li><li>I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.</li><li>The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.</li></ul>

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.

Macroeconomics

In a wide ranging speech delivered overnight in New York,&nbsp;Glenn Stevens, provided more colour on his prior communications in which he has bemoaned the low level of entrepreneurial risk taking across Australia's corporate sector and implored businesses to invest for future growth prospects.&nbsp; Mr Stevens has acknowledged that lower returns on safe assets have not&nbsp;pulled down the cost of capital because there has been an offsetting rise in the equity risk premium.&nbsp;&nbsp; The risk free rate is low due to factors that are restraining corporate investment: low expected earnings growth and a high expected risk premium.&nbsp; I show that the lower risk free rate and lift in the risk premium have contributed to the relative rise in multiples of defensive stocks, and expect their lofty valuations to persist as long as animal spirits remain dormant.

In a wide ranging speech delivered overnight in New York,&nbsp;Glenn Stevens, provided more colour on his prior communications in which he has bemoaned the low level of entrepreneurial risk taking across Australia's corporate sector and implored businesses to invest for future growth prospects.&nbsp; Mr Stevens has acknowledged that lower returns on safe assets have not&nbsp;pulled down the cost of capital because there has been an offsetting rise in the equity risk premium.&nbsp;&nbsp; The risk free rate is low due to factors that are restraining corporate investment: low expected earnings growth and a high expected risk premium.&nbsp; I show that the lower risk free rate and lift in the risk premium have contributed to the relative rise in multiples of defensive stocks, and expect their lofty valuations to persist as long as animal spirits remain dormant.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a> on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. </li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu (5019 JP)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS</a> for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.</li>
</ul>


Buy Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP) on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.
With ENN Energy (2688 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. 
Be long Idemitsu (5019 JP) vs ENEOS for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three news new deals discussed this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources (SPR AU)</a> merger, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/econavista-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39958:1" rel="noopener">EcoNaviSta (5585 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excalibur-mining-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3088:1" rel="noopener">Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three news new deals discussed this week: the Westgold Resources (WGX AU)/Spartan Resources (SPR AU) merger, and EcoNaviSta (5585 JP)'s Tender Offer.
Key updates/news took place on: Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU),Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Westgold/Spartan, Dropsuite, Shandong Fengxiang, Proto Corp, Shinko Electric

Australia

Bell Financial Group Limited provides broking, investment and financial advisory services. The Company offers corporate finance, portfolio administration, investment solutions in global futures and options, currency markets, foreign exchange services. Bell Financial Group serves client in Australia.

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Bell Financial (BFG AU)

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO...

Sam Ferraro

Weekly Impressions

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip,...

Sam Ferraro

Beware of bubble talk, for now

In a wide ranging speech delivered overnight in New York, Glenn Stevens, provided more colour on his prior communications in which he has bemoaned...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Westgold/Spartan, Dropsuite, Shandong Fengxiang, Proto Corp, Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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