HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. </li>
<li>Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.</li>
<li>In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. 
Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.
In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.


The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.</li>
<li>The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.</li>
<li>In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.
The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.
In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

<ul>
<li>The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.</li>
<li>Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).</li>
<li>However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.</li>
</ul>


The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.
Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).
However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

<ul>
<li>The most important policy for the domestic healthcare industry in the next three years is the DRGs/DIP. We analyzed some important points and the industry outlook brought by this policy.</li>
<li>The aggregate “constraints” imposed by DRGs/DIP will greatly reduce the growth of industry, but A-share market hasn’t fully priced in the impact. Investors are advised to be aware of it.</li>
<li>Recently, Shaanxi province announced the results of centralized procurement of pacemakers.</li>
</ul>


The most important policy for the domestic healthcare industry in the next three years is the DRGs/DIP. We analyzed some important points and the industry outlook brought by this policy.
The aggregate “constraints” imposed by DRGs/DIP will greatly reduce the growth of industry, but A-share market hasn’t fully priced in the impact. Investors are advised to be aware of it.
Recently, Shaanxi province announced the results of centralized procurement of pacemakers.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.17)-The Most Important Policy in Next Three Years,Pacemaker VBP Results

<ul>
<li>The 2021 national medical insurance negotiation released results on December 3.</li>
<li>If the COVID virus continues to mutate in a more transmissible direction, the logic of related companies would change.</li>
<li>For those new IPOs that fell on debut, the current "cold winter" is a rational return of the crazy healthcare investment capital market since 2019.</li>
</ul>


The 2021 national medical insurance negotiation released results on December 3.
If the COVID virus continues to mutate in a more transmissible direction, the logic of related companies would change.
For those new IPOs that fell on debut, the current "cold winter" is a rational return of the crazy healthcare investment capital market since 2019.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.3)-2021 Insurance Negotiation Results,new COVID Virus,a Rational Return

Switzerland

BeOne Medicines is a global oncology biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of cancer medicines. Its portfolio includes commercial-stage products like BRUKINSA, TEVIMBRA, and PARTRUVIX, which target various blood cancers and solid tumors. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

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BeOne Medicines (6160 HK)

The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

The rebound in China healthcare sector last week was a temporary rebound rather than a complete reversal. In terms of future direction of stock...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

The insight mainly analyzed the relationship of drug spending with GDP growth, different logic behind China/US biotech companies and related risks...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

This insight analyzed the concerns on capital arbitrage in domestic innovative drugs, the unsatisfactory innovative drug commercial results,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.17)-The Most Important Policy in Next Three Years,Pacemaker VBP Results

This article analyzed the most important policy for China healthcare in the next three years - DRGs/DIP, its potential impact, the outlook of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.3)-2021 Insurance Negotiation Results,new COVID Virus,a Rational Return

This article analyzed the 2021 national medical insurance negotiation results, the change in logic of valuation due to the new COVID virus, and a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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