APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kansai Paint's shareholders aim to raise around US$291m via a secondary follow-on offering. This is a large deal to digest, at 34 days of three month ADV.  </li>
<li>The firm has also mentioned that it will conduct a share buyback of up to 8.2m shares worth approximately 3.5% of TSO or US$87.6m (JPY12bn). This will begin after settlement. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Kansai Paint's shareholders aim to raise around US$291m via a secondary follow-on offering. This is a large deal to digest, at 34 days of three month ADV.  
The firm has also mentioned that it will conduct a share buyback of up to 8.2m shares worth approximately 3.5% of TSO or US$87.6m (JPY12bn). This will begin after settlement. 
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kansai Paint Placement - Hardly an Outstanding First Offering Since Listing

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berger-paints-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5431:1" rel="noopener">Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> are exposed to similar customers but different demand dynamics offering an opportunity to build an L/S trade.</li>
<li>The valuation premium commanded by PIDI over BRGR is not justified in spite of having a similar customer base, similar growth and capital allocation profile.</li>
<li>The Price ratio of the pair BRGR/PIDI has been trading in a tight range since September 2022 and is now showing signs of breaking out of the sideway trend.</li>
</ul>



Berger Paints India (BRGR IN) / Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) are exposed to similar customers but different demand dynamics offering an opportunity to build an L/S trade.
The valuation premium commanded by PIDI over BRGR is not justified in spite of having a similar customer base, similar growth and capital allocation profile.
The Price ratio of the pair BRGR/PIDI has been trading in a tight range since September 2022 and is now showing signs of breaking out of the sideway trend.


Berger Paints (BRGR IN) / Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) | Fundamental Factors Back the Signal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  </li>
<li>The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.</li>
<li>We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.</li>
</ul>



Asian Paints (APNT IN) reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  
The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.
We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line topline at INR 26.7 bn (20% YoY; three-year CAGR: 18%) But it fell marginally short vis-a-vis APNT’s</li><li>On a three-year CAGR basis, it delivered 18% vs APNT’s 20% (standalone)</li><li>The decorative business clocked ~11/23% volume/value YoY growth (three-year value CAGR: 18.4%)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line topline at INR 26.7 bn (20% YoY; three-year CAGR: 18%) But it fell marginally short vis-a-vis APNT’sOn a three-year CAGR basis, it delivered 18% vs APNT’s 20% (standalone)The decorative business clocked ~11/23% volume/value YoY growth (three-year value CAGR: 18.4%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</li>
<li>Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.</li>
<li>Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.
Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.
Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the Nifty Next 50 Index while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the NIFTY Index.


Impact of Potential Changes to India F&O Eligibility Criteria

India

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

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Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)

Kansai Paint Placement - Hardly an Outstanding First Offering Since Listing

Kansai Paint's shareholders aim to raise around US$291m via a secondary follow-on offering. This is a large deal to digest, at 34 days of three...

Ethan Aw

Berger Paints (BRGR IN) / Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) | Fundamental Factors Back the Signal

Berger Paints India (BRGR IN) / Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) are exposed to similar customers but different demand dynamics offering an...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

We believe that the volumes for Asian Paints are slower than what has been reported. Increasing competition could also challenge Asian Paint's...

Pranav Bhavsar

Berger Paints - In-Line Print

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line topline at INR 26.7 bn (20% YoY; three-year CAGR: 18%) But it fell marginally short vis-a-vis APNT’s

HDFC Securities

Impact of Potential Changes to India F&O Eligibility Criteria

News reports indicate that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the F&O segment. 30 stocks...

Brian Freitas

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