Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

We are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25494:1" rel="noopener">BEST Inc (BEST US)</a> from HOLD to BUY on the expectation of Chinese express sector consolidation in the coming 12-18 months. Note that we do not expect sector fundamentals to improve in the near-term, nor do we expect Best to erase its losses in the next few quarters. 
While we concede we may be early in rating Best BUY, we believe conditions are developing in ways that make sector M&amp;A more likely in the medium-term. Given its size, its depressed valuation and its relationship to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, Best could become an acquisition target. 
We view Best as a cheap option on sector consolidation. At a 20% discount to peers on [EV/Revenue] and [EV/Parcel], we believe Best's express operation alone is worth US$5.05 per ADS -- investors effectively get the rest of its businesses for free. BUY below US$3 for ~70% upside.

We are upgrading BEST Inc (BEST US) from HOLD to BUY on the expectation of Chinese express sector consolidation in the coming 12-18 months. Note that we do not expect sector fundamentals to improve in the near-term, nor do we expect Best to erase its losses in the next few quarters. 
While we concede we may be early in rating Best BUY, we believe conditions are developing in ways that make sector M&amp;A more likely in the medium-term. Given its size, its depressed valuation and its relationship to Alibaba Group (BABA US), Best could become an acquisition target. 
We view Best as a cheap option on sector consolidation. At a 20% discount to peers on [EV/Revenue] and [EV/Parcel], we believe Best's express operation alone is worth US$5.05 per ADS -- investors effectively get the rest of its businesses for free. BUY below US$3 for ~70% upside. 

Upgrading Best Inc To Speculative BUY on Expectation of Express Sector Consolidation

Event-Driven

The objectives of this report are to examine what express sector consolidation may look like over the next few years, and to offer investors guidance about how to play this trend when the dominoes begin to fall, most likely in 2021-22. We organize the report into six parts as follows:
<ol>
<li>How things used to work in China's express sector</li>
<li>How the sector has begun changing in ways that may force consolidation</li>
<li>The 'Why?' &amp; 'How?' of Chinese express sector consolidation</li>
<li>Alibaba's critical role in potential M&amp;A activity</li>
<li>Some thoughts about the timing of expected changes</li>
<li>Conclusions</li>
</ol>

The objectives of this report are to examine what express sector consolidation may look like over the next few years, and to offer investors guidance about how to play this trend when the dominoes begin to fall, most likely in 2021-22. We organize the report into six parts as follows:

How things used to work in China's express sector
How the sector has begun changing in ways that may force consolidation
The 'Why?' &amp; 'How?' of Chinese express sector consolidation
Alibaba's critical role in potential M&amp;A activity
Some thoughts about the timing of expected changes
Conclusions


Pressure Building: How Consolidation in China's Express Sector Might Look Over the Next Two Years

The express sector's big news is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US) </a>is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong, as many large Chinese tech companies have done in recent months. We understand the rationale for this move, but still dislike the company's deteriorating fundamentals and rich valuation. 
In August, express sector volume growth remained firm (+36.5% YoY), but revenue growth slowed (+17.9%, slowest since March) as average unit pricing tumbled. We believe the current price war will continue in the medium-term, eating into express companies' margins and cash flow.
Outside of China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> has filed IPO documents. We believe this offering is worth watching, as KEX may be the only public 'pure play' on eCommerce logistics in SE Asia. A successful IPO should also boost sentiment toward <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a>.
Conclusion: Owning independent market leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> against short positions in any of the listed express companies aligned with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> has been a winning strategy in 2020, and we see no reason to change course in the near-term.

The express sector's big news is that ZTO Express (ZTO US) is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong, as many large Chinese tech companies have done in recent months. We understand the rationale for this move, but still dislike the company's deteriorating fundamentals and rich valuation. 
In August, express sector volume growth remained firm (+36.5% YoY), but revenue growth slowed (+17.9%, slowest since March) as average unit pricing tumbled. We believe the current price war will continue in the medium-term, eating into express companies' margins and cash flow.
Outside of China, Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) has filed IPO documents. We believe this offering is worth watching, as KEX may be the only public 'pure play' on eCommerce logistics in SE Asia. A successful IPO should also boost sentiment toward Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK).
Conclusion: Owning independent market leader S.F. Holding (002352 CH) against short positions in any of the listed express companies aligned with Alibaba Group (BABA US) has been a winning strategy in 2020, and we see no reason to change course in the near-term. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: ZTO HK Listing | August Pricing Still Weak | KEX IPO in Bangkok

Equity Capital Markets

ZTO Express Cayman  / Equity Capital Markets

We've been bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> for some time now. In addition to accounting issues the company has been unable to explain, we have long expected heavy downward pressure on profit margins and Operating Cash flow, as seen clearly in the company's weak Q220 results. We appreciate the rationale for seeking a second listing in Hong Kong, though we admit we are surprised by the relatively large scale of the issue, rumored to be around US$2 bn (implying about 8% dilution). Given the continued deterioration of conditions in China's express sector, ZTO may be opportunistically raising a large sum on the expectation that doing so later will prove difficult.In Q220, ZTO posted parcel volume growth of 48% -- well ahead of market growth -- yet EPS grew by only 6%. We believe such poor "conversion" will remain the norm for ZTO in the medium term, and we do not believe such a performance warrants a PER multiple of over 34 times. Retain SELL.

We've been bearish on ZTO Express (ZTO US) for some time now. In addition to accounting issues the company has been unable to explain, we have long expected heavy downward pressure on profit margins and Operating Cash flow, as seen clearly in the company's weak Q220 results. We appreciate the rationale for seeking a second listing in Hong Kong, though we admit we are surprised by the relatively large scale of the issue, rumored to be around US$2 bn (implying about 8% dilution). Given the continued deterioration of conditions in China's express sector, ZTO may be opportunistically raising a large sum on the expectation that doing so later will prove difficult.In Q220, ZTO posted parcel volume growth of 48% -- well ahead of market growth -- yet EPS grew by only 6%. We believe such poor "conversion" will remain the norm for ZTO in the medium term, and we do not believe such a performance warrants a PER multiple of over 34 times. Retain SELL.

Thoughts on ZTO Express' HK Listing: Expensive & Struggling to Maintain Margins & Cash Flow

Q2 results for China's six listed express companies are finally in, and while most companies continued to report depressed profitability, outcomes varied significantly. Several firms pursued volume growth aggressively in the period, sacrificing pricing in order to maximize the number of parcels flowing through their networks; others appeared to do just the opposite. In the Q2 numbers, there is little evidence either approach actually worked consistently well. 
Looking at the volume versus pricing 'tradeoff' over the last two years, there is also little evidence that using pricing to boost volumes actually increases profitability. Indeed, most of the six express companies we track reported Q220 gross profits at or below Q218 levels, despite the companies more than doubling parcel volumes during the period. 
In our view, most Chinese express companies are 'price takers' that offer commodity-like services which are hard to differentiate from what their peers offer. In the long-run, we believe attempts to control pricing by pursuing only select cargoes are unlikely to succeed, and that companies should focus almost purely on securing greater volume and beating down unit costs. Alas, even this approach is likely to result in significantly lower margins over time, in our view.
In this note we review Q220 results, then look back farther to see individual company performance in terms of volume growth, pricing change, and change in gross profit. We also note growing CapEx demands and show how each company's shares have performed so far in 2020. In the medium-term, we expect profitability and cash flow at most express companies to continue to suffer. 
Under the scenario we describe in this note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> continues to stand out. SF's time-definite products and its offerings in cold-chain, international, and local on-demand express truly differentiate it from the other five listed express companies. We believe SF can continue to increase its share of express sector profits and retain our BUY rating.

Q2 results for China's six listed express companies are finally in, and while most companies continued to report depressed profitability, outcomes varied significantly. Several firms pursued volume growth aggressively in the period, sacrificing pricing in order to maximize the number of parcels flowing through their networks; others appeared to do just the opposite. In the Q2 numbers, there is little evidence either approach actually worked consistently well. 
Looking at the volume versus pricing 'tradeoff' over the last two years, there is also little evidence that using pricing to boost volumes actually increases profitability. Indeed, most of the six express companies we track reported Q220 gross profits at or below Q218 levels, despite the companies more than doubling parcel volumes during the period. 
In our view, most Chinese express companies are 'price takers' that offer commodity-like services which are hard to differentiate from what their peers offer. In the long-run, we believe attempts to control pricing by pursuing only select cargoes are unlikely to succeed, and that companies should focus almost purely on securing greater volume and beating down unit costs. Alas, even this approach is likely to result in significantly lower margins over time, in our view.
In this note we review Q220 results, then look back farther to see individual company performance in terms of volume growth, pricing change, and change in gross profit. We also note growing CapEx demands and show how each company's shares have performed so far in 2020. In the medium-term, we expect profitability and cash flow at most express companies to continue to suffer. 
Under the scenario we describe in this note, S.F. Holding (002352 CH) continues to stand out. SF's time-definite products and its offerings in cold-chain, international, and local on-demand express truly differentiate it from the other five listed express companies. We believe SF can continue to increase its share of express sector profits and retain our BUY rating. 

A Price Vs. Volume Tradeoff? Not For Firms Offering Commodity-Like Chinese Express Services

China

BEST Inc. offers logistics and supply chain management solutions. The Company provides express and freight delivery, inventory management, warehousing, financing, cross-border supply chain, merchandise sourcing, and value-added services. BEST serves customers worldwide.

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BEST (BEST US)

Upgrading Best Inc To Speculative BUY on Expectation of Express Sector Consolidation

What is rationale? What are catalysts? Why Best and not other potential targets? Price target?

Tracking Traffic

Pressure Building: How Consolidation in China's Express Sector Might Look Over the Next Two Years

Objective of this note: How things used to work How the sector has begun changing

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: ZTO HK Listing | August Pricing Still Weak | KEX IPO in Bangkok

Big news is ZTO Express (ZTO US) launching

Tracking Traffic

Thoughts on ZTO Express' HK Listing: Expensive & Struggling to Maintain Margins & Cash Flow

We've been bearish on ZTO Express (ZTO US) for some time now. Beyond some accout

Tracking Traffic

A Price Vs. Volume Tradeoff? Not For Firms Offering Commodity-Like Chinese Express Services

Results varied Which approach worked? Market is rewa

Tracking Traffic

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