Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have a neutral outlook on the 3Q24E performance, expecting profit to have increased QoQ and recovered from a loss YoY.</li><li>However, we hold a slightly negative view on the 3Q24E gross margin, which is expected to have remained stable QoQ (previously we anticipated it to have improved).</li><li>KTX maintains a Neutral rating, but we revise down the fair value to Bt20.60 using the earnings yield method with a required return of 5.4% (from Bt24.14 with a required return of 4.1% previously). </li></ul>

We have a neutral outlook on the 3Q24E performance, expecting profit to have increased QoQ and recovered from a loss YoY.However, we hold a slightly negative view on the 3Q24E gross margin, which is expected to have remained stable QoQ (previously we anticipated it to have improved).KTX maintains a Neutral rating, but we revise down the fair value to Bt20.60 using the earnings yield method with a required return of 5.4% (from Bt24.14 with a required return of 4.1% previously). 

Betagro - 3Q24E Core Profit to Have Increased 36% QoQ

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in October, with expected declines of around 2-5%, based on the five-year historical trend.</li>
<li>Typically, broiler and swine prices rebound by 5-16% in 1Q of the following year.</li>
<li>For 3Q24E, companies in the meat sector, particularly those focused on swine in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, are expected to see strong YoY and QoQ profit growth, with earnings reports anticipated within the first 15 days of November. </li>
</ul>


The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in October, with expected declines of around 2-5%, based on the five-year historical trend.
Typically, broiler and swine prices rebound by 5-16% in 1Q of the following year.
For 3Q24E, companies in the meat sector, particularly those focused on swine in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, are expected to see strong YoY and QoQ profit growth, with earnings reports anticipated within the first 15 days of November. 


Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - October 4, 2024

<ul><li>In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China.</li><li>Their earnings are anticipated to turn around from losses in 3Q23 to profits in 3Q24E, with momentum expected to continue growing QoQ.</li><li>KTX has revised up its earnings projection for TFG but lowered the projection for RBF, as its 3Q24E earnings are expected to decline YoY and QoQ. </li></ul>

In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China.Their earnings are anticipated to turn around from losses in 3Q23 to profits in 3Q24E, with momentum expected to continue growing QoQ.KTX has revised up its earnings projection for TFG but lowered the projection for RBF, as its 3Q24E earnings are expected to decline YoY and QoQ. 

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - Sep 5, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Thailand

Betagro Public Company Limited manufactures agricultural food products. The Company offers animal feed, raises livestock, produces animal health products, and markets meat products for human consumption. Betagro serves customers worldwide.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

Betagro - 3Q24E Core Profit to Have Increased 36% QoQ

We have a neutral outlook on the 3Q24E performance, expecting profit to have increased QoQ and recovered from a loss YoY.

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - October 4, 2024

The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - Sep 5, 2024

In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

There are 4 potential changes for the SET50 in Dec. There are some other stocks that could make the cut. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Although there are only three changes expected right now, there are multiple names just outside the border requiring small relative price changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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