Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite an improving earnings outlook for 2026, several short-term headwinds will continue to weigh on the share price.</li><li>The company expects 4Q25 profit to fall QoQ due to lower sales in the low season and record-high copper prices.</li><li>Next year’s growth will rely on: i) HDI capacity expansion in 1H26 and ii) continued cost cuts through lower headcount and new production chemicals for other production lines.</li></ul>

Despite an improving earnings outlook for 2026, several short-term headwinds will continue to weigh on the share price.The company expects 4Q25 profit to fall QoQ due to lower sales in the low season and record-high copper prices.Next year’s growth will rely on: i) HDI capacity expansion in 1H26 and ii) continued cost cuts through lower headcount and new production chemicals for other production lines.

KCE Electronics Plc. (KCE): Let’s Wait And See Next Year – Neutral (12M Fwd Fair Value Bt20.00)

<ul><li>In 3Q25, KCE’s USD revenue rose to USD107mn (–3% YoY, +8% QoQ), a 4-quarter high, driven by order recovery, slight price gains, and new machine installations.</li><li>SG&amp;A rose sharply to Bt474mn from Bt435mn in the prior quarter, mainly from impairment, doubtful debt provisions, and intangible asset write-offs totaling about Bt49mn.</li><li>KCE posted a 3Q25 core profit of Bt275mn (–29% YoY, +57% QoQ), in line with our estimate but 9% below consensus.</li></ul>

In 3Q25, KCE’s USD revenue rose to USD107mn (–3% YoY, +8% QoQ), a 4-quarter high, driven by order recovery, slight price gains, and new machine installations.SG&amp;A rose sharply to Bt474mn from Bt435mn in the prior quarter, mainly from impairment, doubtful debt provisions, and intangible asset write-offs totaling about Bt49mn.KCE posted a 3Q25 core profit of Bt275mn (–29% YoY, +57% QoQ), in line with our estimate but 9% below consensus.

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Core Profit Met Our Estimate But Missed Consensus

<ul><li>KCE’s 3Q25 net profit is estimated at Bt276mn (–28% YoY, +57% QoQ), with the expected YoY drop due to i) a stronger baht and ii) higher copper prices.</li><li>4Q25 should be similar to 3Q25 as it is the low season, and the company may temporarily shut down factories at year-end as before, reflecting a still-weak outlook.</li><li>We maintain a negative view on Thailand’s electronics sector, including KCE, as our strategy team expects the baht to gain further by 7% and 9% from prior assumptions to 29.3 and 28.6 per USD in 2026 and 2027, respectively.</li></ul>

KCE’s 3Q25 net profit is estimated at Bt276mn (–28% YoY, +57% QoQ), with the expected YoY drop due to i) a stronger baht and ii) higher copper prices.4Q25 should be similar to 3Q25 as it is the low season, and the company may temporarily shut down factories at year-end as before, reflecting a still-weak outlook.We maintain a negative view on Thailand’s electronics sector, including KCE, as our strategy team expects the baht to gain further by 7% and 9% from prior assumptions to 29.3 and 28.6 per USD in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Still Fully Valued Despite Earnings Rebound

<ul><li>We cut our 2025 earnings forecast for KCE by 23% to Bt901mn (-43% YoY) due to: i) a weaker-than-expected 2Q25 performance, and ii) our house view’s revised baht assumption from 33.00/USD to 32.57/USD.</li><li>Our strategy team expects that rising economic risks in the US will put downward pressure on the US dollar, leading to a long-term weakening trend.</li><li>Taking all factors into account, we cut our 2025-2026E earnings forecasts by 23% and 17% to Bt901mn (-43% YoY) and Bt1,074mn (+19% YoY), respectively, with 2025E profit set to be the lowest in six years.</li></ul>

We cut our 2025 earnings forecast for KCE by 23% to Bt901mn (-43% YoY) due to: i) a weaker-than-expected 2Q25 performance, and ii) our house view’s revised baht assumption from 33.00/USD to 32.57/USD.Our strategy team expects that rising economic risks in the US will put downward pressure on the US dollar, leading to a long-term weakening trend.Taking all factors into account, we cut our 2025-2026E earnings forecasts by 23% and 17% to Bt901mn (-43% YoY) and Bt1,074mn (+19% YoY), respectively, with 2025E profit set to be the lowest in six years.

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Strong Baht Outlook Will Put Pressure On Earnings

<ul><li>KCE reported 2Q25 core profit of Bt176mn (-67% YoY, -2% QoQ), missing our and the market’s estimates by 20% and 26%, respectively.</li><li>This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which the company’s profit came in below market expectations, leading us to believe that in the short term, the share price is likely to decline in line with the investment strategy we previously recommended.</li><li>We maintain our Underperform rating with and unchanged fair value, and we will revise our forecasts after today’s analyst meeting.</li></ul>

KCE reported 2Q25 core profit of Bt176mn (-67% YoY, -2% QoQ), missing our and the market’s estimates by 20% and 26%, respectively.This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which the company’s profit came in below market expectations, leading us to believe that in the short term, the share price is likely to decline in line with the investment strategy we previously recommended.We maintain our Underperform rating with and unchanged fair value, and we will revise our forecasts after today’s analyst meeting.

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Another Quarter Of Downbeat Earnings

Thailand

KCE Electronics Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries manufacture and export single-layered, multi-layered, and double-sided printed circuit boards (PCBs) under its KCE trademark.  Multi-layered PCBs are used mainly in high technology equipment and high precision instruments.  Double-sided PCBs are used largely in telecommunication and computing equipment.

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KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)

KCE Electronics Plc. (KCE): Let’s Wait And See Next Year – Neutral (12M Fwd Fair Value Bt20.00)

Despite an improving earnings outlook for 2026, several short-term headwinds will continue to weigh on the share price.The company expects 4Q25...

Krungthai XSpring

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Core Profit Met Our Estimate But Missed Consensus

In 3Q25, KCE’s USD revenue rose to USD107mn (–3% YoY, +8% QoQ), a 4-quarter high, driven by order recovery, slight price gains, and new machine...

Krungthai XSpring

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Still Fully Valued Despite Earnings Rebound

KCE’s 3Q25 net profit is estimated at Bt276mn (–28% YoY, +57% QoQ), with the expected YoY drop due to i) a stronger baht and ii) higher copper prices.

Krungthai XSpring

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Strong Baht Outlook Will Put Pressure On Earnings

Our strategy team expects that rising economic risks in the US will put downward pressure on the US dollar, leading to a long-term weakening trend.

Krungthai XSpring

KCE ELECTRONICS Plc. (KCE): Another Quarter Of Downbeat Earnings

KCE reported 2Q25 core profit of Bt176mn (-67% YoY, -2% QoQ), missing our and the market’s estimates by 20% and 26%, respectively.

Krungthai XSpring

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