Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on KCE with a Neutral rating and a FY2024E fair value of Bt35.50, based on a required rate of return of 4.91%.</li><li>While we believe KCE’s FY2024E core earnings will rebound to Bt2.1bn (+20% YoY), driven by cost savings, product mix improvement, and increased sales, we view the current valuation as unfavorable.</li><li>Our model also suggests that KCE’s valuation will remain unattractive until FY2025E (FV: Bt40.75), and a rerating to a Buy would only be possible in FY2026E (FV: Bt52.50) on the back of continued EV momentum and demand for safety auxiliary systems (ADAS) driving KCE’s sales.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on KCE with a Neutral rating and a FY2024E fair value of Bt35.50, based on a required rate of return of 4.91%.While we believe KCE’s FY2024E core earnings will rebound to Bt2.1bn (+20% YoY), driven by cost savings, product mix improvement, and increased sales, we view the current valuation as unfavorable.Our model also suggests that KCE’s valuation will remain unattractive until FY2025E (FV: Bt40.75), and a rerating to a Buy would only be possible in FY2026E (FV: Bt52.50) on the back of continued EV momentum and demand for safety auxiliary systems (ADAS) driving KCE’s sales.

Kce Electronics - Cost Savings and Product Mix Should Help Earnings Recover

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>I currently see only one ADD and one DEL for the SET 50 index and with more than 90% of the reference period complete, these are my final expectations.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.
I currently see only one ADD and one DEL for the SET 50 index and with more than 90% of the reference period complete, these are my final expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Only ONE Change Likely

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Liquidity is poor in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> but the stocks should be maintained in the index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.9x ADV (1.2% of float) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> and sell 0.8x ADV (1.6% of float) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) should replace Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) in the SET50 INDEX at the December rebalance.
Liquidity is poor in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) and Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) but the stocks should be maintained in the index.
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.9x ADV (1.2% of float) of KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) and sell 0.8x ADV (1.6% of float) of Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: KCE Could Replace TIDLOR

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Thailand

KCE Electronics Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries manufacture and export single-layered, multi-layered, and double-sided printed circuit boards (PCBs) under its KCE trademark.  Multi-layered PCBs are used mainly in high technology equipment and high precision instruments.  Double-sided PCBs are used largely in telecommunication and computing equipment.

KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)

Kce Electronics - Cost Savings and Product Mix Should Help Earnings Recover

We initiate our coverage on KCE with a Neutral rating and a FY2024E fair value of Bt35.50, based on a required rate of return of 4.91%.

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Only ONE Change Likely

The SET 50 Dec 23 index review results could be announced in the next few days. In this insight, I have discussed my final expectations for index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: KCE Could Replace TIDLOR

KCE Electronics could replace TIDLOR in the SET50. There are a few stocks close to the liquidity thresholds, but that is unlikely to result in any...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA