Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our latest capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, we expect at least one index change during the next index review in December 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we have presented our latest capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
Separately, we expect at least one index change during the next index review in December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping for Delta in September; Index Changes Likely in December

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping Flows in September and Index Changes in December

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have a positive outlook for 2Q25E, expecting strong profit growth both YoY and QoQ, supported by higher sales and improved margins.</li><li>For 3Q25E, profit is expected to soften QoQ but remain better than 1Q25, driven by lower raw material costs and seasonal demand for broiler exports.</li><li>Although swine prices have declined, a recovery is anticipated in 4Q25E, in line with the rebound in domestic tourism and the overall economy.</li></ul>

We have a positive outlook for 2Q25E, expecting strong profit growth both YoY and QoQ, supported by higher sales and improved margins.For 3Q25E, profit is expected to soften QoQ but remain better than 1Q25, driven by lower raw material costs and seasonal demand for broiler exports.Although swine prices have declined, a recovery is anticipated in 4Q25E, in line with the rebound in domestic tourism and the overall economy.

Betagro - Expect 2Q25E Earnings to Grow 3-Fold YoY and 38% QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 8 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have drifted lower over the last 6 months and outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> while the deletes have dropped a lot and underperformed the index.</li>
</ul>


With 8 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
The forecast adds have drifted lower over the last 6 months and outperformed the SET 50 Index while the deletes have dropped a lot and underperformed the index.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes

<ul><li>1Q25 profit was strong QoQ and turned around from a loss YoY, driven by higher sales and improved margins.</li><li>The recovery momentum is expected to continue into 2Q25E, sparked by lower raw material costs and rising swine prices, which are likely to remain elevated through the end of 2Q owing to reduced supply from disease outbreaks and hot weather causing lower pig weight.</li><li>Based on the valuation metrics, we downgrade our view on the current fundamentals to sell to lock in profit (previously neutral), as the share price exceeds our estimated fair value of Bt21.4 (based on the earnings yield with a required return of 13.1%).</li></ul>

1Q25 profit was strong QoQ and turned around from a loss YoY, driven by higher sales and improved margins.The recovery momentum is expected to continue into 2Q25E, sparked by lower raw material costs and rising swine prices, which are likely to remain elevated through the end of 2Q owing to reduced supply from disease outbreaks and hot weather causing lower pig weight.Based on the valuation metrics, we downgrade our view on the current fundamentals to sell to lock in profit (previously neutral), as the share price exceeds our estimated fair value of Bt21.4 (based on the earnings yield with a required return of 13.1%).

Betagro - 1 Q2 5 Earnings Grew YoY and QoQ Due to Better GPM

Thailand

Betagro is a leading integrated agro-industrial and food company in Thailand. Its core businesses include animal feed production, livestock farming, animal health products, and the production and distribution of meat, eggs, fish, and processed foods, including pet food. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1967.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping for Delta in September; Index Changes Likely in December

We expect one ADD and one DEL during the December 2025 index review based on the latest data. However, there could be more changes depending on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec25: Capping Flows in September and Index Changes in December

There are currently two potential ADDs and two potential DELs which are close to triggering index changes in December 2025. Relative price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Betagro - Expect 2Q25E Earnings to Grow 3-Fold YoY and 38% QoQ

We have a positive outlook for 2Q25E, expecting strong profit growth both YoY and QoQ, supported by higher sales and improved margins.

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes

There should be 3 constituent changes in June and large selling in DELTA due to capping. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.5-3.8x ADV in the adds...

Brian Freitas

Betagro - 1 Q2 5 Earnings Grew YoY and QoQ Due to Better GPM

We maintain a strong long-term growth outlook, with profit projected to grow at a CAGR of 24% over the next three years, and continue to see very...

Krungthai XSpring

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