Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25 and 2025 earnings grew broadly in line with expectations. 1Q–2Q26E profit is expected to decline YoY due to higher feed costs from 4Q25, softer pork prices, and the export broiler business entering the low season.</li><li>We maintain our Underperform rating. While 2026–28E earnings are projected to grow at an 8% CAGR (vs. 6% for the sector), with 2026E profit falling 35% YoY before recovering in 2027–28E, the stock still implies 14% downside to our Bt16.40 fair value (11.7% required return).</li><li>4Q25 core profit and net profit were Bt913mn and Bt1,023mn, 5% above estimates on upbeat other income.</li></ul>

4Q25 and 2025 earnings grew broadly in line with expectations. 1Q–2Q26E profit is expected to decline YoY due to higher feed costs from 4Q25, softer pork prices, and the export broiler business entering the low season.We maintain our Underperform rating. While 2026–28E earnings are projected to grow at an 8% CAGR (vs. 6% for the sector), with 2026E profit falling 35% YoY before recovering in 2027–28E, the stock still implies 14% downside to our Bt16.40 fair value (11.7% required return).4Q25 core profit and net profit were Bt913mn and Bt1,023mn, 5% above estimates on upbeat other income.

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 4Q25/2025 Profit In Line; 1H26E/2026E To Fall YoY

<ul><li>4Q25E core profit is expected to declined 9% YoY and 29% QoQ on lower swine prices.</li><li>While margins should recover in 1Q– 2Q26E as prices rebound, BTG’ s swine operations are limited to Thailand, offering less upside than CPF and TFG, which benefit from Vietnam (and China for CPF).</li><li>We switch to Underperform (from Neutral) . Despite 2026–28E profit growth of 8% CAGR (vs. a sector average of 6% ) , with 2026E profit expected to fall 33% YoY to a low base before recovering in 2027–28E, the stock has 19% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt15. 10 ( based on a required return of 14.8%; previously Bt17.70 / 12.6%). With very limited tactical upside, BTG offers limited appeal in the near term.</li></ul>

4Q25E core profit is expected to declined 9% YoY and 29% QoQ on lower swine prices.While margins should recover in 1Q– 2Q26E as prices rebound, BTG’ s swine operations are limited to Thailand, offering less upside than CPF and TFG, which benefit from Vietnam (and China for CPF).We switch to Underperform (from Neutral) . Despite 2026–28E profit growth of 8% CAGR (vs. a sector average of 6% ) , with 2026E profit expected to fall 33% YoY to a low base before recovering in 2027–28E, the stock has 19% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt15. 10 ( based on a required return of 14.8%; previously Bt17.70 / 12.6%). With very limited tactical upside, BTG offers limited appeal in the near term.

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 4Q25E Profit Down YoY/QoQ; Better Swine Prices in 1Q26E

<ul><li>3Q25 NP was Bt1.17bn, including a Bt64mn one-off loss (Bt84mn fair value loss on biological assets and Bt20mn gain from asset sales).</li><li>Core profit was Bt1.23bn (+35% YoY, –53% QoQ), supported by: i) sales of Bt30.6bn (+2% YoY, –3% QoQ), as higher volume (+7% YoY, +4% QoQ) was offset by weaker swine prices amid rainy-season demand and temporary labor shortages; ii) GPM rising to 15% (13.9% in 3Q24, 19.6% in 2Q25); iii) SG&amp;A-to-sales increasing to 10.6% (10.1%/10.3% in 3Q24/2Q25); and iv) a lower effective tax rate of 10% vs. 12% in 1H25.</li><li>For 4Q25E, swine prices could rebound after the Vegetarian Festival, with farm-gate prices expected at Bt62–69/kg (+6% WoW).</li></ul>

3Q25 NP was Bt1.17bn, including a Bt64mn one-off loss (Bt84mn fair value loss on biological assets and Bt20mn gain from asset sales).Core profit was Bt1.23bn (+35% YoY, –53% QoQ), supported by: i) sales of Bt30.6bn (+2% YoY, –3% QoQ), as higher volume (+7% YoY, +4% QoQ) was offset by weaker swine prices amid rainy-season demand and temporary labor shortages; ii) GPM rising to 15% (13.9% in 3Q24, 19.6% in 2Q25); iii) SG&amp;A-to-sales increasing to 10.6% (10.1%/10.3% in 3Q24/2Q25); and iv) a lower effective tax rate of 10% vs. 12% in 1H25.For 4Q25E, swine prices could rebound after the Vegetarian Festival, with farm-gate prices expected at Bt62–69/kg (+6% WoW).

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 3Q25 Core Profit +35% YoY, –53% QoQ; Above Estimates...

<ul><li>We have a slightly negative-to-neutral outlook for 3Q25E, expecting profit to have grown YoY but declined QoQ due to weaker sales and margins following lower swine prices.</li><li>KTX revises our fair value to Bt17.70, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 12.6%, incorporating updated macro assumptions of Rf = 1.04% and MRP = 5.81% (vs. the previous fair value of Bt21.60, based on a required return of 12.5%, Rf of 1.45%, and MRP of 5.26%).</li><li>Valuation metrics remain neutral on current fundamentals.</li></ul>

We have a slightly negative-to-neutral outlook for 3Q25E, expecting profit to have grown YoY but declined QoQ due to weaker sales and margins following lower swine prices.KTX revises our fair value to Bt17.70, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 12.6%, incorporating updated macro assumptions of Rf = 1.04% and MRP = 5.81% (vs. the previous fair value of Bt21.60, based on a required return of 12.5%, Rf of 1.45%, and MRP of 5.26%).Valuation metrics remain neutral on current fundamentals.

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): Expect 3Q25E Profit Down 58% QoQ...

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The index continues to demonstrate solid underlying momentum and has shown the ability to rebound quickly.</li><li>Positive sentiment remains supported by continued fund inflows, while the RSI is still comfortably below the overbought zone and the MACD has crossed above its signal line.</li><li>Accordingly, we continue to recommend buying on dips, with a focus on domestic plays and laggard stocks, which we believe will remain in investors' focus.</li></ul>

The index continues to demonstrate solid underlying momentum and has shown the ability to rebound quickly.Positive sentiment remains supported by continued fund inflows, while the RSI is still comfortably below the overbought zone and the MACD has crossed above its signal line.Accordingly, we continue to recommend buying on dips, with a focus on domestic plays and laggard stocks, which we believe will remain in investors' focus.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. July 3, 2026

Thailand

Betagro is a leading integrated agro-industrial and food company in Thailand. Its core businesses include animal feed production, livestock farming, animal health products, and the production and distribution of meat, eggs, fish, and processed foods, including pet food. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1967.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 4Q25/2025 Profit In Line; 1H26E/2026E To Fall YoY

1Q–2Q26E profit is expected to decline YoY due to higher feed costs from 4Q25, softer pork prices, and the export broiler business entering the low...

Krungthai XSpring

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 4Q25E Profit Down YoY/QoQ; Better Swine Prices in 1Q26E

While margins should recover in 1Q– 2Q26E as prices rebound, BTG’ s swine operations are limited to Thailand, offering less upside than CPF and...

Krungthai XSpring

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): 3Q25 Core Profit +35% YoY, –53% QoQ; Above Estimates...

3Q25 NP was Bt1.17bn, including a Bt64mn one-off loss (Bt84mn fair value loss on biological assets and Bt20mn gain from asset sales).

Krungthai XSpring

BETAGRO Plc. (BTG): Expect 3Q25E Profit Down 58% QoQ...

We have a slightly negative-to-neutral outlook for 3Q25E, expecting profit to have grown YoY but declined QoQ due to weaker sales and margins...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. July 3, 2026

The index continues to demonstrate solid underlying momentum and has shown the ability to rebound quickly. Positive sentiment remains supported by...

Krungthai XSpring

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