Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update Following Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) to BUY, with a target price of INR 420, given it has corrected ~30% from its peak over the last six months, owing to pressure on auto-fuel marketing margins and an increase in LPG under-recoveries</li><li>We believe the recent correction is overdone, and see limited downside from current levels, led by: (1) improvements in refining margins, (2) resumption of daily auto-fuel price changes, and (3) a gradual reduction in LPG under-recoveries.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We upgrade Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) to BUY, with a target price of INR 420, given it has corrected ~30% from its peak over the last six months, owing to pressure on auto-fuel marketing margins and an increase in LPG under-recoveriesWe believe the recent correction is overdone, and see limited downside from current levels, led by: (1) improvements in refining margins, (2) resumption of daily auto-fuel price changes, and (3) a gradual reduction in LPG under-recoveries.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL (Update): Favourable risk-reward. Upgrade to BUY

Aarti Industries: We maintain our BUY recommendation on Aarti Industries (AIL) with a target price of INR 1,330/share. We expect the company's PAT to grow at a 31% CAGR over FY22-24E. AIL's constant focus on Capex and R&amp;D will enable it to remain competitive and expand its customer base. The toluene segment in India is mainly untapped and catered to through imports; AIL will benefit in the long term by entering this segment. Q2 EBITDA/APAT were 4/2% below our estimates, attributable to significantly higher-than-expected raw material cost, higher-than-expected opex, offset by a 16% rise in revenue, lower-than-expected depreciation, and finance cost.
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Aarti Industries: We maintain our BUY recommendation on Aarti Industries (AIL) with a target price of INR 1,330/share. We expect the company's PAT to grow at a 31% CAGR over FY22-24E. AIL's constant focus on Capex and R&amp;D will enable it to remain competitive and expand its customer base. The toluene segment in India is mainly untapped and catered to through imports; AIL will benefit in the long term by entering this segment. Q2 EBITDA/APAT were 4/2% below our estimates, attributable to significantly higher-than-expected raw material cost, higher-than-expected opex, offset by a 16% rise in revenue, lower-than-expected depreciation, and finance cost.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Aditya Birla Capital, Indian Oil Corporation, BPCL, Cholamandalam, Voltas,...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), SMC Global

SMC Online

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin decreased from 11.21% to 4.40%, leading to 26.64% decline in operating profit to Rs 3,125.00 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 28.11% to 37.52%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 48.39% to 50.86%. Employee cost decreased from 2.68% to 1.04%....
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin decreased from 11.21% to 4.40%, leading to 26.64% decline in operating profit to Rs 3,125.00 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 28.11% to 37.52%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 48.39% to 50.86%. Employee cost decreased from 2.68% to 1.04%....
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Achieved Highest Ever Average Ethanol Blending of 8.95% During Q1FY22

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. There could be more changes if some large stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with Info Edge India (INFOE IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). There could be more changes if some large stocks like Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on Info Edge India (INFOE IN) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.Info Edge India (INFOE IN) trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is an Indian public sector oil and gas company involved in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products, with significant presence in the upstream and downstream sectors. It operates refineries and an extensive marketing and distribution network across India, offering products such as petrol, diesel, LPG, and lubricants. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was formed in 1976 through the nationalization of Burmah Shell.

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Bharat Petroleum (BPCL IN)

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update Following Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine - Lucror Analytics

This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asia Monthly...

Lucror Analytics

BPCL (Update): Favourable risk-reward. Upgrade to BUY

We upgrade Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) to BUY, with a target price of INR 420, given it has corrected ~30% from its peak over the last six...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Aditya Birla Capital, Indian Oil Corporation, BPCL, Cholamandalam, Voltas,...

Aarti Industries: We maintain our BUY recommendation on Aarti Industries (AIL) with a target price of INR 1,330/share. We expect the company's PAT...

HDFC Securities

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Achieved Highest Ever Average Ethanol Blending of 8.95% During Q1FY22

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin...

SMC Online

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

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