Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Big Hit doubled the IPO price at the opening on this market debut day.</p><p>It then immediately hit the daily ceiling (30%). But the glory didn't last long. It now falls back to ₩278,000, only +3% from the opening price.</p><p>It sits on a market cap of ₩9.4T, taking the 31st spot on KOSPI.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit Ent. (₩B)"}'>Big Hit Ent. market debut performance (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MC"}'>MC</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ranking"}'>Ranking</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"IPO price"}'>IPO price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":135000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[-53]C[2]">₩135,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4569.23592}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000">4,569.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Opening"}'>Opening</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":270000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩270,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9138.47184}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000">9,138.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Daily high"}'>Daily high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":351000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩351,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11880.013392}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000">11,880.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current"}'>Current</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":278000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩278,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9409.241376}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000">9,409.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":31}'>31</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The final allocation number to overseas institutions was 1,431,617, representing 4.23% of SO and 20.08% of the IPO. The initial estimate was 1.1M. So, it may explain a more aggressive selling force than initially anticipated this morning.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allocation by type (₩B)"}'>Allocation by type (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Qty. - initial"}'>Qty. - initial</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% - initial"}'>% - initial</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Qty. - final"}'>Qty. - final</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% - final"}'>% - final</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Institutional"}'>Institutional</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4278000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R8C2*0.6">4,278,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">60.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4282309}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]+(R[4]C[-2]-R[4]C[0])">4,282,309</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.600604347826087}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">60.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Local (est.)"}'>- Local (est.)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2850692}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]-R[1]C[0]">2,850,692</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.39981654978962133}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">39.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Overseas (est.)"}'><strong>- Overseas (est.)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1431617}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'><strong>1,431,617</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.20078779803646563}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2"><strong>20.08%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Retail"}'>Retail</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1426000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R8C2*0.2">1,426,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">20.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1426000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[2]C[-2]-R[-3]C[0]-R[1]C[0]">1,426,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"ESOP"}'>ESOP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1426000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R8C2*0.2">1,426,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">20.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1421691}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'>1,421,691</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.19939565217391306}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">19.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total"}'>Total</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7130000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[-139]C[0]">7,130,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">100.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7130000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-5]C[0]+R[-2]C[0]+R[-1]C[0]">7,130,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/Terms!R8C2">100.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Big Hit doubled the IPO price at the opening on this market debut day.It then immediately hit the daily ceiling (30%). But the glory didn't last long. It now falls back to ₩278,000, only +3% from the opening price.It sits on a market cap of ₩9.4T, taking the 31st spot on KOSPI.








Big Hit Ent. market debut performance (₩B)
Price
MC
Ranking


IPO price
₩135,000
4,569.2
-


Opening
₩270,000
9,138.5
-


Daily high
₩351,000
11,880.0
-


Current
₩278,000
9,409.2
31

Source: KRX

The final allocation number to overseas institutions was 1,431,617, representing 4.23% of SO and 20.08% of the IPO. The initial estimate was 1.1M. So, it may explain a more aggressive selling force than initially anticipated this morning.









Allocation by type (₩B)
Qty. - initial
% - initial
Qty. - final
% - final


Institutional
4,278,000
60.00%
4,282,309
60.06%


- Local (est.)
-
-
2,850,692
39.98%


- Overseas (est.)
-
-
1,431,617
20.08%


Retail
1,426,000
20.00%
1,426,000
20.00%


ESOP
1,426,000
20.00%
1,421,691
19.94%


Total
7,130,000
100.00%
7,130,000
100.00%

Source: DART



Big Hit First Trading Day: Market Reception & Immediate-Term Ceiling Price

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight"><p>The Big Hit Entertainment IPO starts trading this week on 15 October. It was reported today in numerous<a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1203171.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> media</a> that Samsung has removed BTS related products from its official stores on Chinese e-commerce platforms. Well, apparently this news is really getting out of hand. All the major local media outlets in Korea including <a href="https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20201012108900083?input=1195m" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YTN, </a><a href="https://www.chosun.com/international/china/2020/10/12/6RFKE7KJ6FEXFM6GB6Z24PCEGY/?utm_source=naver&amp;utm_medium=original&amp;utm_campaign=news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chosun</a>, and <a href="https://news.joins.com/article/23892128" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joongang</a> have reported on this news. </p></div>

The Big Hit Entertainment IPO starts trading this week on 15 October. It was reported today in numerous media that Samsung has removed BTS related products from its official stores on Chinese e-commerce platforms. Well, apparently this news is really getting out of hand. All the major local media outlets in Korea including YTN, Chosun, and Joongang have reported on this news. 

BTS' Political Remarks Anger Thousands of Chinese Fans

Big Hit released a regulatory filing about the final allocation and lock-up data at DART.Here is the link to it.There was a little shortage in the ESOP subscription. As a result, the institutional allocation got bumped up slightly.









Allocation by type (₩B)
Qty. - initial
% - initial
Qty. - final
% - final


Institutional
4,278,000
60.00%
4,282,309
60.06%


- Local (est.)
-
-
3,150,695
44.19%


- Overseas (est.)
-
-
1,131,614
15.87%


Retail
1,426,000
20.00%
1,426,000
20.00%


ESOP
1,426,000
20.00%
1,421,691
19.94%


Total
7,130,000
100.00%
7,130,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Allocation by banker (₩B)
Qty.
Value
%
Note


NH
2,495,500
336.9
35.00%
Local


KIS
2,139,000
288.8
30.00%
Local


JP Morgan
1,639,900
221.4
23.00%
Overseas


Mirae Asset
713,000
96.3
10.00%
Local


Kiwoom
142,600
19.3
2.00%
Local

Source: DART

About 80% of the institutional allocation carries a lock-up. But only half is 3 months or longer. The other half expires within a month.








Allocation by lock-up
Qty.
% of allocation
% of SO


6 months
1,063,100
24.83%
3.14%


3 months
765,179
17.87%
2.26%


1 month
1,322,416
30.88%
3.91%


15 days
205,463
4.80%
0.61%


No lock-up
926,151
21.63%
2.74%


Total
4,282,309
-
12.65%

Source: DART

As a result, the immediate real-world float becomes 19.8%, rising to 24.3% after one month.







Immediate real-world float
Qty.
%


1 year
1,421,691
4.20%


6 months
21,006,701
62.07%


3 months
3,189,195
9.42%


1 month
1,322,416
3.91%


15 days
205,463
0.61%


- Total
27,145,467
80.20%


Immediate real-world float
6,700,726
19.80%

Source: DART









Shareholding
Post-IPO
Lock-up


Bang Si-hyuk
36.57%
6 months


Minority shareholders (lock-up)
1.41%
6 months


Netmarble Corp
20.94%
6 months


STIC Investments
7.16%
3 months


ESOP (through IPO)
4.21%
1 year


Minority shareholders (no lock-up)
12.85%
-


IPO
16.85%
-


Total
100.00%
-

Source: DART



Big Hit IPO: Immediate Real-World Float & Index Float (For KOSPI 200)

<p>The Forbes magazine has an excellent<a href="https://www.forbes.com/soccer-valuations/list/#tab:overall" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> list</a> of the valuations of the top 20 football (soccer) teams in the world. Founded in 1902, the Real Madrid football team has been around for nearly 118 years. Real Madrid is the most valuable football franchise in the world with a valuation of $4.2 billion.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Warren Buffett always recommended his followers to think in terms of buying the whole business rather than a small fraction of the business. We ask our readers this question, <strong><em>"If you had a choice of buying a 100% stake in either Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment AT THE SAME PRICE, which company would you buy?" </em></strong>In this insight, we go through the details of why most serious investors would buy Real Madrid rather than Big Hit at the same price. In addition, such a comparison could shed greater light on why Big Hit Entertainment IPO is more likely to be a dud rather than a big success.</p>
</div>

The Forbes magazine has an excellent list of the valuations of the top 20 football (soccer) teams in the world. Founded in 1902, the Real Madrid football team has been around for nearly 118 years. Real Madrid is the most valuable football franchise in the world with a valuation of $4.2 billion.

Warren Buffett always recommended his followers to think in terms of buying the whole business rather than a small fraction of the business. We ask our readers this question, "If you had a choice of buying a 100% stake in either Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment AT THE SAME PRICE, which company would you buy?" In this insight, we go through the details of why most serious investors would buy Real Madrid rather than Big Hit at the same price. In addition, such a comparison could shed greater light on why Big Hit Entertainment IPO is more likely to be a dud rather than a big success.


Would You Rather Buy Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment for the Same Price?

Big Hit came up a little short of beating the previous record-holder (Kakao Games), but still, it proved that it could become another hot IPO in Korea.The final subscription rate was 1,117 to 1 as a total of 1,420 institutions bothered to care for this IPO. Of them, 125 (excluding those categorized in Foreign Others) came from overseas. Well, it isn't a lot for an IPO of this size.









By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


Local PO funds
478
33.66%
1,775,621,000
37.15%


Local BR/IA
31
2.18%
124,161,000
2.60%


Local pension/bank/insurance
253
17.82%
911,131,000
19.06%


Local others (hedge funds)
325
22.89%
1,163,673,000
24.35%


Foreign (foreign funds)
125
8.80%
90,662,789
1.90%


Foreign others (local hot money)
208
14.65%
714,365,000
14.95%


Total
1,420
100.00%
4,779,613,789
100.00%


Subscription rate
1,117.25

Source: DART

The pricing was aggressive. Everyone priced it at 75% of the upper end or higher.But there is a tendency here. The local institutions showed greater affection as they priced it more aggressively. The foreign institutions? Well, none of them placed their orders above the upper end.









By price
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
422
29.74%
1,544,842,000
32.32%


75-100% of high end
959
67.58%
3,121,231,789
65.30%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
1
0.07%
8,000
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
1,000
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
37
2.61%
113,531,000
2.38%


Total
1,419
100.00%
4,779,613,789
100.00%

Source: DART











Local PO funds
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
195
40.79%
715,327,000
40.29%


75-100% of high end
258
53.97%
984,017,000
55.42%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
25
5.23%
76,277,000
4.30%


Total
478
100.00%
1,775,621,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local BR/IA
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
5
16.13%
21,390,000
17.23%


75-100% of high end
26
83.87%
102,771,000
82.77%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
31
100.00%
124,161,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local pension/bank/insurance
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
104
41.11%
384,988,000
42.25%


75-100% of high end
145
57.31%
513,301,000
56.34%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
1
0.40%
8,000
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
3
1.19%
12,834,000
1.41%


Total
253
100.00%
911,131,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local others (hedge funds)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
118
36.31%
423,137,000
36.36%


75-100% of high end
197
60.62%
716,115,000
61.54%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
1,000
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
9
2.77%
24,420,000
2.10%


Total
325
100.00%
1,163,673,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Foreign (foreign funds)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of high end
125
100.00%
90,662,789
100.00%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
125
100.00%
90,662,789
100.00%

Source: DART











Foreign others (local hot money)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of high end
208
100.00%
714,365,000
100.00%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
208
100.00%
714,365,000
100.00%

Source: DART

Lock-up is also a bit disappointing. The final result is 44%, but nearly two-thirds are one month or less, suggesting there is a long-term trust issue here.








Lock-up

6 months
464,723,000


3 months
391,101,000


1 months
1,035,585,543


15 days
204,450,464


Total
2,095,860,007


- %
43.85%

Source: DART



Big Hit IPO: Book-Building Results, Mood, & BeNX (WEVERSE) Ownership Issue

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HYBE (352820 KS)

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