Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Baidu announced on 27 Aug 2026 following the EGM and before market open that its dual-primary listing takes effect on 1 Sep 2026.</li>
<li>Baidu clears the two WVR first-inclusion thresholds for both market cap and turnover.</li>
<li>All five prior conversions saw positive 10-day returns and positive 10-day southbound inflows after Connect ADD.</li>
</ul>


Baidu announced on 27 Aug 2026 following the EGM and before market open that its dual-primary listing takes effect on 1 Sep 2026.
Baidu clears the two WVR first-inclusion thresholds for both market cap and turnover.
All five prior conversions saw positive 10-day returns and positive 10-day southbound inflows after Connect ADD.


Baidu-SW Primary Conversion: Confirmation, Expectation, and the Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> could raise up to US$2bn in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$212bn (US$27bn).</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors will take up between 21.7-22.6% of the base offering and those shares will be locked up for 6 months from listing date.</li>
<li>Fast Entry inclusion in the HSCI is likely but Southbound Stock Connect could take over a year from listing date. Earliest global index inclusion in March.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) could raise up to US$2bn in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$212bn (US$27bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up between 21.7-22.6% of the base offering and those shares will be locked up for 6 months from listing date.
Fast Entry inclusion in the HSCI is likely but Southbound Stock Connect could take over a year from listing date. Earliest global index inclusion in March.


SHEIN Global (625 HK): Delayed Index Inclusions; Stock Connect Next September

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>We continue to expect no index changes for September 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$1.3bn in one-way flows triggered by capping.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st August 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
We continue to expect no index changes for September 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$1.3bn in one-way flows triggered by capping.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st August 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: No Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way; Announcement in Two Weeks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.</li><li>Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.</li><li>However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

China

Bilibili Inc. is a leading online entertainment and video-sharing platform in China, primarily offering professional user-generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, live broadcasting, and value-added services. The company provides diverse digital content including anime, comics, and gaming (ACG), as well as pan-entertainment and pan-knowledge content. Bilibili is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2009.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bilibili (9626 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Baidu-SW Primary Conversion: Confirmation, Expectation, and the Trade

Baidu confirmed its dual-primary conversion takes effect on 1 Sep 2026. We assess the Connect ADD timeline and positioning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SHEIN Global (625 HK): Delayed Index Inclusions; Stock Connect Next September

SHEIN could raise up to US$2bn in its IPO, valuing the company at US$27bn. Likely HSCI Fast Entry but Stock Connect only next Sept. One global...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: No Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way; Announcement in Two Weeks

We expect the index review results for HSTECH to be publicly confirmed after market close on 21st August 2026. Please see the discussion point...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery. Total ad spend returned to positive...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)