External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view</li><li>2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)</li><li>3) property transaction data are robust </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)3) property transaction data are robust Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

<ul><li>Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.</li><li>This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.</li><li>Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

<ul><li>NBS data in 7M24 weakened as the market expected. REI decline widened to - 10.2% from -10.1% in 6M24.</li><li>In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land purchase costs performed better (affected c.90% of total REI) with their declines only widened 0.1ppt and narrowed 4.7ppt respectively.</li><li>We estimate the worse REI data may be caused by material price declines that resulted in lower construction cost per sqm under construction (Figure 2). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS data in 7M24 weakened as the market expected. REI decline widened to - 10.2% from -10.1% in 6M24.In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land purchase costs performed better (affected c.90% of total REI) with their declines only widened 0.1ppt and narrowed 4.7ppt respectively.We estimate the worse REI data may be caused by material price declines that resulted in lower construction cost per sqm under construction (Figure 2). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - NBS 7M24: REI Decline Widened but Its Components All Performed Better, Why?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

<ul><li>Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.</li><li>Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.</li><li>High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

China

Binjiang Service Group Co. Ltd. provides comprehensive property management and related services across the People's Republic of China. Its core services include security, cleaning, gardening, repair, and maintenance for residential and non-residential properties, alongside value-added services for both property owners and non-property owners. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Shenzhen made another move on policy relaxation including 1) lowering CPF down payment ratio from 30% to 20% for 2nd home buyers

CMB International

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level...

CMB International

Property - NBS 7M24: REI Decline Widened but Its Components All Performed Better, Why?

In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land...

CMB International

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

For stocks, we recommend asset-light companies benefiting from the existing market such as CR MixC, Poly Services, Binjiang Services, Onewo, BEKE...

CMB International

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