Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

<ul>
<li>There is only one new listing as a potential inclusion to the HSCI in June. If added to the HSCI, it will also be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There are 18 potential inclusions and 19 potential deletions for the HSCI in September. There are a few close adds and there could be another 5 deletions on Prolonged Suspension.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings. With all the stocks becoming sell-only, there could be unwinding of some positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There is only one new listing as a potential inclusion to the HSCI in June. If added to the HSCI, it will also be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
There are 18 potential inclusions and 19 potential deletions for the HSCI in September. There are a few close adds and there could be another 5 deletions on Prolonged Suspension.
A lot of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings. With all the stocks becoming sell-only, there could be unwinding of some positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June & September

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Binjiang Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binjiang-service-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28940:1" rel="noopener">Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)</a> reported a solid earnings growth of 28% YoY, with revenue up 41%. Binjiang has outperformed its peers in the PMC space by a long way.</li>
<li>Net cash on the balance sheet increased to 37% of the current market capitalization, led by the growth of operating profits and payables.</li>
<li>The PE FY23e/24e now is a modest 11.2x FY23e/9.2x FY24e with dividend yield of 5.4%/6.5% FY23e/24e (assuming a 60% payout ratio).</li>
</ul>



Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) reported a solid earnings growth of 28% YoY, with revenue up 41%. Binjiang has outperformed its peers in the PMC space by a long way.
Net cash on the balance sheet increased to 37% of the current market capitalization, led by the growth of operating profits and payables.
The PE FY23e/24e now is a modest 11.2x FY23e/9.2x FY24e with dividend yield of 5.4%/6.5% FY23e/24e (assuming a 60% payout ratio).


Binjiang 3316 HK: >30% Profit Growth, Dividend Yield~6.5%, Cash Now 37% of Market Cap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binjiang-service-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28940:1" rel="noopener">Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)</a> trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY22/23e with 32% of the market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of 5%/6.4% FY22e/23e (assuming a 60% payout). </li>
<li>The company has asserted it will maintain its payout ratio at 60% and conserve cash for M&amp;A. Its approach will be conservative and involve lengthy due diligence.</li>
<li>With an improving market environment and good results around the corner in March, we believe a rally to 30 HKD/share is within the realm of possibility.</li>
</ul>



Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY22/23e with 32% of the market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of 5%/6.4% FY22e/23e (assuming a 60% payout). 
The company has asserted it will maintain its payout ratio at 60% and conserve cash for M&amp;A. Its approach will be conservative and involve lengthy due diligence.
With an improving market environment and good results around the corner in March, we believe a rally to 30 HKD/share is within the realm of possibility.


Binjiang 3316 HK: More Room to Go, Results in March 2023 The Next Catalyst

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

China

Binjiang Service Group Co. Ltd. provides comprehensive property management and related services across the People's Republic of China. Its core services include security, cleaning, gardening, repair, and maintenance for residential and non-residential properties, alongside value-added services for both property owners and non-property owners. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June & September

For the HSCI, there could be 1 add in June and 18 adds/19 deletes in Sep. There are some close adds and 5 potential deletes on prolonged...

Brian Freitas

Binjiang 3316 HK: >30% Profit Growth, Dividend Yield~6.5%, Cash Now 37% of Market Cap

Binjiang's PE FY23e/24e now is a modest 11.2x FY23e/9.2x FY24e with dividend yield of 5.4%/6.5% FY23e/24e (assuming a 60% payout ratio). The...

Sameer Taneja

Binjiang 3316 HK: More Room to Go, Results in March 2023 The Next Catalyst

Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY22/23e with 32% of the market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of 5%/6.4% FY22e/23e...

Sameer Taneja

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

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