Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.
The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.


STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> recorded double and triple-digit revenue growth from Hemlibra in domestic and export markets, respectively during 9M2022. Growth momentum is expected to continue.</li>
<li>Both Actembra and Ronapreve have limited revenue potential from COVID-related indications. Ronapreve reported revenue of ¥60.8 billion in 1Q22 in domestic market, with no reported revenue in two subsequent quarters.</li>
<li>Actemra will face biosimilar competition. This month China has approved first Actembra biosimilar, while a couple of others are under review of the FDA.  </li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) recorded double and triple-digit revenue growth from Hemlibra in domestic and export markets, respectively during 9M2022. Growth momentum is expected to continue.
Both Actembra and Ronapreve have limited revenue potential from COVID-related indications. Ronapreve reported revenue of ¥60.8 billion in 1Q22 in domestic market, with no reported revenue in two subsequent quarters.
Actemra will face biosimilar competition. This month China has approved first Actembra biosimilar, while a couple of others are under review of the FDA.  


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Hemlibra Is the Only Saviour; Competition Bites Mainstay Drugs

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.</li>
<li>The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.</li>
<li>The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.
The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.
The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

Beijing Mabworks Biotech / Equity Capital Markets

<p>On July 18, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-mabworks-biotech-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33816:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Mabworks Biotech (MWB HK) </a>formally submitted its application to the HKEX for listing on the main board. It should be noted that Mabworks's application for listing on the SSE STAR Market was accepted in September last year, but the Company voluntarily withdrew its application in March this year. Mabworks is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company in China focusing on the discovery and development of differentiated antibody drugs. This insight mainly analyzed the clinical-stage drug candidates and related concerns of the Company.</p>

On July 18, 2021, Beijing Mabworks Biotech (MWB HK) formally submitted its application to the HKEX for listing on the main board. It should be noted that Mabworks's application for listing on the SSE STAR Market was accepted in September last year, but the Company voluntarily withdrew its application in March this year. Mabworks is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company in China focusing on the discovery and development of differentiated antibody drugs. This insight mainly analyzed the clinical-stage drug candidates and related concerns of the Company.

Pre-IPO Beijing Mabworks Biotech - MIL62 Alone Cannot Save the Situation

<p>In August, 2021, after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a> announced that the Company and Seagen Inc. had entered into an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement to develop and commercialize disitamab vedotin (RC48), the share price of RemeGen rose to HK$145.50/share, its second-highest ever. Meanwhile, in June, RemeGen submitted a prospectus to the SSE STAR Market, which was its second IPO application after its listing on the HKEX in November 2020. In September, RemeGen completed its reply to the first round enquiry by Shanghai Stock Exchange. Although RemeGen always seems to inadvertently bring "stimulation" to the market, from this enquiry and the business analysis, we could still find some concerns that worth investors’ attention. </p>

In August, 2021, after Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK) announced that the Company and Seagen Inc. had entered into an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement to develop and commercialize disitamab vedotin (RC48), the share price of RemeGen rose to HK$145.50/share, its second-highest ever. Meanwhile, in June, RemeGen submitted a prospectus to the SSE STAR Market, which was its second IPO application after its listing on the HKEX in November 2020. In September, RemeGen completed its reply to the first round enquiry by Shanghai Stock Exchange. Although RemeGen always seems to inadvertently bring "stimulation" to the market, from this enquiry and the business analysis, we could still find some concerns that worth investors’ attention. 

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) - Insights About the First Round Enquiry by Shanghai Stock Exchange

China

Bio-Thera Solutions, Ltd. researches and develops innovative and biosimilar therapeutics. The Company produces innovative monoclonal antibodies, adalimumab biosimilars, innovative drugs, and other related products. Bio-Thera Solutions markets its products throughout China.

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Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)

STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

There are 10 changes a side for the STAR100 Index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Hemlibra Is the Only Saviour; Competition Bites Mainstay Drugs

Fast growth from Chugai’s new products falls short of compensating the revenue loss from the mainstay products. Chugai may not be able to meet 2022...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

The insight analyzed Betta about key products such as Icotinib, Ensartinib, MIL60, CM082, concerns on slow product iteration,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Beijing Mabworks Biotech - MIL62 Alone Cannot Save the Situation

This article mainly analyzed Mabworks Biotech in terms of the important clinical-stage drug candidates (MIL62, MIL93, MBS301, MIL97, MIL95, MIL86,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) - Insights About the First Round Enquiry by Shanghai Stock Exchange

This article mainly analyzed RemeGen in terms of its reply to Shanghai Stock Exchange’s first round enquiry, the core products, the pipeline, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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