Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.</li>
<li>Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore (GLEN LN)</a> shareholders the option of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Ltd (RIO AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio PLC (RIO LN)</a>, which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK)</a> is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.</li>
</ul>


This price for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.
Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer Glencore (GLEN LN) shareholders the option of Rio Ltd (RIO AU) or Rio PLC (RIO LN), which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.

Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunway-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11025:1" rel="noopener">Sunway Bhd (SWB MK)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">IJMCorp (IJM MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC  (2268 HK)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biodlink-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28192:1" rel="noopener">BioDlink International (1875 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Sunway Bhd (SWB MK)'s Offer for IJMCorp (IJM MK), and WuXi XDC  (2268 HK)'s tilt for BioDlink International (1875 HK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Minmetals Land (230 HK), and Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Industries, BioDlink, IJM Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Minmetals Land

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.</li>
<li>I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.


Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.</li>
<li>There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. </li>
<li>I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. 
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.</li>
<li>Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.</li>
<li>I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

China

Develops, manufactures and markets anti-tumor drugs

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BioDlink International (1875 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Industries, BioDlink, IJM Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Minmetals Land

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote and support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

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