Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synopsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3493:1" rel="noopener">Synopsys Inc (SNPS US)</a> has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coreweave-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44471:1" rel="noopener">CoreWeave (CRWV US)</a> is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.</li>
<li>Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.</li>
</ul>


The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.

CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.


CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongodb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26655:1" rel="noopener">MongoDB (MDB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1" rel="noopener">Biogen Inc (BIIB US)</a> are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synopsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3493:1" rel="noopener">Synopsys Inc (SNPS US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-airlines-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15776:1" rel="noopener">United Airlines Holdings (UAL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> are <em>currently</em> the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>.</li>
</ul>



MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.

Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US). 

United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).


Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During H1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.</li>
<li>Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.</li>
<li>Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


During H1FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.
Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.
Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

United States

Biogen Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes therapies, focusing on neurology, oncology, and immunology. The Company products address diseases such as multiple sclerosis, non-hodgkin's lymphoma, rheumatoid arthritis, crohn's disease, and psoriasis.

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Biogen (BIIB UW)

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

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Vermilion Research

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Vermilion Research

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Thomson Reuters (TRI) will replace ANSS instead. Reuters was considered to be in the category of financial data providers - alongside FactSet and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Ansys (ANSS) is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100 by June 2025 following its acquisition by Synopsys (SNPS). United Airlines (UAL) and Alnylam...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

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Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition

Thomson Reuters (TRI) will replace ANSS instead. Reuters was considered to be in the category of financial data providers - alongside FactSet and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Ansys (ANSS) is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100 by June 2025 following its acquisition by Synopsys (SNPS). United Airlines (UAL) and Alnylam...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

​Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...