Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity is projected to rise in 2023 after last year’s tumble, but after its recent surge are we seeing a material pull-back?</li>
<li>UK gilt crisis in September was a wake-up call. In the 23 following weeks, US Fed liquidity has flat-lined not fallen. US monetary policy is bifurcating 
</li>
<li>Deteriorating US fiscal position will place huge demands for more QE. Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is dead in America
</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity is projected to rise in 2023 after last year’s tumble, but after its recent surge are we seeing a material pull-back?
UK gilt crisis in September was a wake-up call. In the 23 following weeks, US Fed liquidity has flat-lined not fallen. US monetary policy is bifurcating 

Deteriorating US fiscal position will place huge demands for more QE. Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is dead in America



Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed last October. Noticeable acceleration, particularly in US dollar terms at near 30% annualized clip</li>
<li>
 China and Japan are the key Central Banks leading the charge. Yet, even the US Fed is stirring, with net liquidity injections seeming targeting stable bank reserve levels</li>
<li>Financial markets have already felt this liquidity boost, particularly liquidity-sensitive instruments like tech shares, gold and Bitcoin. The World economy too is stirring 
</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed last October. Noticeable acceleration, particularly in US dollar terms at near 30% annualized clip

 China and Japan are the key Central Banks leading the charge. Yet, even the US Fed is stirring, with net liquidity injections seeming targeting stable bank reserve levels
Financial markets have already felt this liquidity boost, particularly liquidity-sensitive instruments like tech shares, gold and Bitcoin. The World economy too is stirring 



Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With cryptocurrency prices skyrocketing over 10x since 2020, a host of mining companies, including PrimeBlock, Core Scientific, BitFuFu, Bitdeer, Griid, and Cipher Mining, have either announced or made their public market debuts through SPAC mergers.</li><li>Surging crypto prices, combined with a shortage of ASIC miners (cryptocurrency mining equipment), meant that investors chose to pursue publicly traded mining stocks as an alternative to pursuing the profitable opportunity.</li><li>However, several factors could dampen the interest in crypto mining companies going forward, including fears of extended crypto winter, heightened regulatory scrutiny regarding mining practices, and deteriorating sales &amp; margins.</li></ul>

With cryptocurrency prices skyrocketing over 10x since 2020, a host of mining companies, including PrimeBlock, Core Scientific, BitFuFu, Bitdeer, Griid, and Cipher Mining, have either announced or made their public market debuts through SPAC mergers.Surging crypto prices, combined with a shortage of ASIC miners (cryptocurrency mining equipment), meant that investors chose to pursue publicly traded mining stocks as an alternative to pursuing the profitable opportunity.However, several factors could dampen the interest in crypto mining companies going forward, including fears of extended crypto winter, heightened regulatory scrutiny regarding mining practices, and deteriorating sales &amp; margins.

<ul><li>Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.</li><li>In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.</li><li>Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.</li></ul>

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.

United States

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Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?

Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is effectively dead in America. Wise investors should start to prepare some...

Michael J. Howell

Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity ….

Global Liquidity cycle bottomed last October. Latest weekly data show major Central Banks’ aggregate liquidity measured in US dollar terms has...

Michael J. Howell

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Digital Gold Rush

The current environment parallels that of the bear market seen in digital assets in 2018. The Global Cryptocurrency Market Cap has fallen from...

subSPAC

Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

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