CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

Crypto

<p>”To lose one parent, Mr Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.“ - Lady Bracknell, from the Importance of Being Earnest, by Oscar Wilde.</p>
<p>It’s been a week to remember in British politics, but for all the wrong reasons. The Truss revolution is over before it began.</p>
<p>It shows the importance of both discussion and presentation. Ms Truss seemed to operate in something of an echo chamber, surrounding herself with those who agreed with her and failing to listen to the other side of the argument. Then, once elected, she and her team failed to sell the plan.&nbsp;</p>
<p>There’s a lesson for crypto here. In a month full of crypto conferences, one is reminded how much this sector operates in its own bubble. The conferences are full of back-slapping, with attendees all telling each other how well they are doing and how much is being achieved. And yet the outside world remains largely baffled by what crypto is up to, outside of its role as a speculative trading asset. And that’s not going so well right now. Crypto needs to improve its presentation.</p>
<p>The Truss/Kwarteng debacle also shows us how easy it is to lose a narrative once the media gets the bit between its teeth. Any sensible interpretation of Sterling’s decline would point to events much further back in time. It’s ludicrous to suggest that one mini-budget caused all the damage when the British currency has been doing much the same as all other non-dollar currencies ever since the Fed started this rate hiking cycle. Indeed, the Pound has barely moved since Truss moved into Number 10, and inflation is a global, not a British, phenomenon.</p>
<p>Yet maybe she had the right idea. Interest rate rises will work, particularly now because there is so much debt, whether it be household, government or corporate. Economies will slow, and there is mounting evidence they are already doing so fast. Expectations of tough times are being baked in everywhere, and behaviour is changing; people are cutting down on spending left, right and centre. As businesses start to fail, it will be hard to meet those higher wage expectations that everyone is talking about. Markets are bracing for something to break. In that environment, was it crazy to propose an agenda for growth?</p>
<p>This week in ATOMIC, we look at a couple of leading indicators that suggest the worst of inflation is in the rear mirror. At the same time, we lament the lack of activity on the bitcoin blockchain and observe that our internal fair valuations continue to come down. Additionally, our co-founder, Mark Griffiths, took a good look at Quant (QNT) and reported back on its efficacy and ease of use.</p>
<p>In Token Takeaway, Ali tackles Uniswap, the largest decentralised exchange. If and when the crypto market recovers, it will be a huge boon to the exchanges, and Uniswap is one of the leaders. Meanwhile, ByteFolio identifies a couple of crypto tokens showing up on ByteTrend that are placed on watch.</p>
<p>Lastly, with the next Bitcoin halving only 18 months away, we look at the current price performance and how it compares with the previous two cycles. Are we likely to have a “three-peat”? There are arguments in both directions, but we consider that the stars are aligning favourably.</p>

”To lose one parent, Mr Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.“ - Lady Bracknell, from the Importance of Being Earnest, by Oscar Wilde.
It’s been a week to remember in British politics, but for all the wrong reasons. The Truss revolution is over before it began.
It shows the importance of both discussion and presentation. Ms Truss seemed to operate in something of an echo chamber, surrounding herself with those who agreed with her and failing to listen to the other side of the argument. Then, once elected, she and her team failed to sell the plan.&nbsp;
There’s a lesson for crypto here. In a month full of crypto conferences, one is reminded how much this sector operates in its own bubble. The conferences are full of back-slapping, with attendees all telling each other how well they are doing and how much is being achieved. And yet the outside world remains largely baffled by what crypto is up to, outside of its role as a speculative trading asset. And that’s not going so well right now. Crypto needs to improve its presentation.
The Truss/Kwarteng debacle also shows us how easy it is to lose a narrative once the media gets the bit between its teeth. Any sensible interpretation of Sterling’s decline would point to events much further back in time. It’s ludicrous to suggest that one mini-budget caused all the damage when the British currency has been doing much the same as all other non-dollar currencies ever since the Fed started this rate hiking cycle. Indeed, the Pound has barely moved since Truss moved into Number 10, and inflation is a global, not a British, phenomenon.
Yet maybe she had the right idea. Interest rate rises will work, particularly now because there is so much debt, whether it be household, government or corporate. Economies will slow, and there is mounting evidence they are already doing so fast. Expectations of tough times are being baked in everywhere, and behaviour is changing; people are cutting down on spending left, right and centre. As businesses start to fail, it will be hard to meet those higher wage expectations that everyone is talking about. Markets are bracing for something to break. In that environment, was it crazy to propose an agenda for growth?
This week in ATOMIC, we look at a couple of leading indicators that suggest the worst of inflation is in the rear mirror. At the same time, we lament the lack of activity on the bitcoin blockchain and observe that our internal fair valuations continue to come down. Additionally, our co-founder, Mark Griffiths, took a good look at Quant (QNT) and reported back on its efficacy and ease of use.
In Token Takeaway, Ali tackles Uniswap, the largest decentralised exchange. If and when the crypto market recovers, it will be a huge boon to the exchanges, and Uniswap is one of the leaders. Meanwhile, ByteFolio identifies a couple of crypto tokens showing up on ByteTrend that are placed on watch.
Lastly, with the next Bitcoin halving only 18 months away, we look at the current price performance and how it compares with the previous two cycles. Are we likely to have a “three-peat”? There are arguments in both directions, but we consider that the stars are aligning favourably.

<p>Yesterday I spoke with&nbsp;Keith Weiner, founder of Monetary Metals. He’s well versed on gold but a bitcoin sceptic, at least in the sense that it won’t supersede gold as the leading monetary asset. I asked him for his price forecast for gold and bitcoin over 1, 10 and 100 years in an attempt to frame his views.<br><br>On gold, he felt it would be higher next year. Over ten years, he felt the dollar would be worthless, which implies gold would be the must-have asset. If that major event would be true within 10 years, the 100-year view becomes irrelevant.<br><br>On bitcoin, he gave it a kicking, but more that it wasn’t gold, nor ever would be, as opposed to thinking it was structurally worthless. With a computing background, he had respect for the tech and the crypto vision, just that gold would remain gold, and that was that. It was a great conversation which you can watch&nbsp;here.<br><br>If you don’t have the time, our monthly&nbsp;BOLD Chartbook&nbsp;covers much of the ground in the world of gold and bitcoin.<br><br>In other events, the Ethereum (ETFH) Merge went ahead without a glitch. They say it’s better to travel than arrive, and ETH duly fell 10% on the good news. That’s markets for you.<br><br>The&nbsp;ByteTree research machine&nbsp;covered&nbsp;Cosmos (ATOM), a platform that offers interconnectivity between blockchains. There will inevitably be many blockchains in the future, and these sorts of connections will be hugely valuable. ATOM has already done twice as well as ETH since May.</p>
<h3>ByteTrend: Cosmos (ATOM) 5-Star Bullish Trend in ETH</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/298/528/original/image_55427990421663360968040.png?1663360970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="298528"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019&amp;id=ea87921871&amp;e=7c019babf2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Da4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019%26id%3Dea87921871%26e%3D7c019babf2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1663447271708000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Z2LcVzWnzSKrOXVR4XaI8" rel="noopener">ByteTree Terminal</a></div>
<p>Just imagine a world where computers are chomping away with one another 24/7 while being able to trust one another, which with North Korean viruses they currently struggle with. ATOM is&nbsp;one of the 10 holdings&nbsp;in&nbsp;ByteFolio, having sold two last week.&nbsp;<br><br>In&nbsp;ATOMIC,&nbsp;asked why “Uptober” is such a strong month for bitcoin. No one seems to know, but the good news is that it is just two weeks away.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/298/529/original/image_31913521631663360999658.png?1663361001" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="298529"></figure>
<p>Last week I mentioned the banks were looking perky. It’s one of the few sectors that enjoy higher rates and doesn’t seem to mind inflation. Well, they broke out nicely against the world index. At this rate, they’ll soon be the new oil trade. And no one seems to own them – a bit like oil earlier this year.</p>
<h3>ByteTrend: US Banks Relative to the World Index - 5-Star Trend Score</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/298/530/original/image_98025686341663361022432.png?1663361023" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="298530"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019&amp;id=4b4bba60c5&amp;e=7c019babf2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://bytetree.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Da4a4461fba9ee073aaefd6019%26id%3D4b4bba60c5%26e%3D7c019babf2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1663447271709000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3ZjZvMolKPtuBvbIz1qsSw" rel="noopener">ByteTree Terminal</a></div>
<p>Here in the UK, we have a National Day of Mourning on Monday for the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. May she rest in peace. Long Live the King.</p>

Yesterday I spoke with&nbsp;Keith Weiner, founder of Monetary Metals. He’s well versed on gold but a bitcoin sceptic, at least in the sense that it won’t supersede gold as the leading monetary asset. I asked him for his price forecast for gold and bitcoin over 1, 10 and 100 years in an attempt to frame his views.  On gold, he felt it would be higher next year. Over ten years, he felt the dollar would be worthless, which implies gold would be the must-have asset. If that major event would be true within 10 years, the 100-year view becomes irrelevant.  On bitcoin, he gave it a kicking, but more that it wasn’t gold, nor ever would be, as opposed to thinking it was structurally worthless. With a computing background, he had respect for the tech and the crypto vision, just that gold would remain gold, and that was that. It was a great conversation which you can watch&nbsp;here.  If you don’t have the time, our monthly&nbsp;BOLD Chartbook&nbsp;covers much of the ground in the world of gold and bitcoin.  In other events, the Ethereum (ETFH) Merge went ahead without a glitch. They say it’s better to travel than arrive, and ETH duly fell 10% on the good news. That’s markets for you.  The&nbsp;ByteTree research machine&nbsp;covered&nbsp;Cosmos (ATOM), a platform that offers interconnectivity between blockchains. There will inevitably be many blockchains in the future, and these sorts of connections will be hugely valuable. ATOM has already done twice as well as ETH since May.
ByteTrend: Cosmos (ATOM) 5-Star Bullish Trend in ETH

Source:&nbsp;ByteTree Terminal
Just imagine a world where computers are chomping away with one another 24/7 while being able to trust one another, which with North Korean viruses they currently struggle with. ATOM is&nbsp;one of the 10 holdings&nbsp;in&nbsp;ByteFolio, having sold two last week.&nbsp;  In&nbsp;ATOMIC,&nbsp;asked why “Uptober” is such a strong month for bitcoin. No one seems to know, but the good news is that it is just two weeks away.

Last week I mentioned the banks were looking perky. It’s one of the few sectors that enjoy higher rates and doesn’t seem to mind inflation. Well, they broke out nicely against the world index. At this rate, they’ll soon be the new oil trade. And no one seems to own them – a bit like oil earlier this year.
ByteTrend: US Banks Relative to the World Index - 5-Star Trend Score

Source:&nbsp;ByteTree Terminal
Here in the UK, we have a National Day of Mourning on Monday for the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. May she rest in peace. Long Live the King.

Gold and Bitcoin in a Year, 10 Years, 100 Years?

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A Learning Opportunity for Crypto

”To lose one parent, Mr Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.“ - Lady Bracknell, from the Importance of...

ByteTree Asset Management

Gold and Bitcoin in a Year, 10 Years, 100 Years?

Yesterday I spoke with Keith Weiner, founder of Monetary Metals. He’s well versed on gold but a bitcoin sceptic, at least in the sense that it...

ByteTree Asset Management

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52-week Range

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