Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.</li>
<li>While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.</li>
<li>
Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed
</li>
</ul>


I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.
While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.

Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed



The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

<ul>
<li>We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum</li>
<li>Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board</li>
<li>But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions</li>
</ul>


We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum
Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board
But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions


Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance, Coinstack

Coinstack

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance

Coinstack is published weekly by Ryan Allis. He was previously CEO and Co-founder of iContact and led the company from 300 employees, 70,000 customers, and $50M in annual sales and an exit for $169M. Ryan was an angel investor in SpaceX, LendingClub, Change.org, Kuli Kuli, and Catalant. Today, Ryan advises companies and governments on blockchain-related projects and is the Chairman of Hive.org, a global community of 3,500 purpose-driven leaders from 130 countries making a positive impact in the world. Ryan holds an MBA from Harvard Business School where he was Co-President of the Harvard Social Enterprise Club and a fellow of the Harvard Graduate School Leadership Institute.

Crypto

<ul><li>Bitcoin ended the week near $64,250 (July 19) as softer June CPI failed to override Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone.</li><li>Spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the week with $75.67 million (July 17) in net inflows despite Monday’s $424.66 million (July 13) drawdown.</li><li>The GENIUS Act stablecoin rulemaking deadline passed on July 18 with agencies still finalizing final texts.</li></ul>

Bitcoin ended the week near $64,250 (July 19) as softer June CPI failed to override Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone.Spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the week with $75.67 million (July 17) in net inflows despite Monday’s $424.66 million (July 13) drawdown.The GENIUS Act stablecoin rulemaking deadline passed on July 18 with agencies still finalizing final texts.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)</li><li>There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside move</li><li>My credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus</li></ul>

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside moveMy credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus

<ul><li>What’s the Macro End Game? In short, another great reset of our monetary system . We often talk about what markets are going to do next month, or this year.</li><li>We like the feeling of being in control of asset class performances: after all, achieving consistent alpha year after year is has remained an elusive task for many.</li><li>This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees</li></ul>

What’s the Macro End Game? In short, another great reset of our monetary system . We often talk about what markets are going to do next month, or this year.We like the feeling of being in control of asset class performances: after all, achieving consistent alpha year after year is has remained an elusive task for many.This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Bears are Knocking at The Door

We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Deadline Passed. Now What?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the week with $75.67 million (July 17) in net inflows despite Monday’s $424.66 million (July 13) drawdown.

Coinstack

How To Trade This Market Eruption

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks & oil)

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Macro End Game

What’s the Macro End Game? In short, another great reset of our monetary system. We often talk about what markets are going to do next month, or...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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