Institutional-Grade Analysis, In-depth Insights, Animoca Brands Research

Animoca Brands Research

Institutional-Grade Analysis, In-depth Insights

Animoca Brands Corporation Ltd. is a Hong Kong-based game software company and venture capital company

Crypto

<ul><li aria-level="1">Q3 saw a shift in altcoin exchange listing activities from a low phase to a more volatile model.</li><li aria-level="1">July marked the first recovery, driven by Bitget and MEXC. A full rebound occurred in September, with strong listing activities from both large and mid-size exchanges, reaching January's listing event levels and surpassing its initial trading volume.</li><li aria-level="1">We anticipate continued volatility in listing activity due to overall market uncertainty.</li></ul>

Q3 saw a shift in altcoin exchange listing activities from a low phase to a more volatile model.July marked the first recovery, driven by Bitget and MEXC. A full rebound occurred in September, with strong listing activities from both large and mid-size exchanges, reaching January's listing event levels and surpassing its initial trading volume.We anticipate continued volatility in listing activity due to overall market uncertainty.

<ul><li aria-level="1">Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Market Capitalisation (MC), while subject to various externalities, are often used as reference points for token valuation. However, this approach is ambiguous for early-stage tokens: Small circulating floats and speculative momentum often inflate FDV, creating uncertainty over whether to benchmark against peers’ FDV or to adjust for differences in circulating supply.</li><li aria-level="1">We analysed over 800 tokens, regressing circulating supply (%CS) against both Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Market Capitalisation (MC), with results segmented by project maturity and time.</li><li aria-level="1">Main finding: Throughout most of a token’s life, MC explains valuation behaviour more reliably than FDV. The market anchors on circulating supply rather than total theoretical value.</li></ul>

Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Market Capitalisation (MC), while subject to various externalities, are often used as reference points for token valuation. However, this approach is ambiguous for early-stage tokens: Small circulating floats and speculative momentum often inflate FDV, creating uncertainty over whether to benchmark against peers’ FDV or to adjust for differences in circulating supply.We analysed over 800 tokens, regressing circulating supply (%CS) against both Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Market Capitalisation (MC), with results segmented by project maturity and time.Main finding: Throughout most of a token’s life, MC explains valuation behaviour more reliably than FDV. The market anchors on circulating supply rather than total theoretical value.

Interpreting Circulating Supply Effects on Token Valuation: MC Vs FDV

<ul><li>Evolving Treasury Landscape: Corporate treasuries face challenges from macroeconomic shifts, including high interest rate volatility, significant monetary expansion leading to inflation, and increasing geopolitical risks impacting cash flows and profitability.</li><li>Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset: Bitcoin has emerged as an alternative asset for these challenges, offering a scarce and increasingly institutionally viable asset for potential long-term value preservation and portfolio diversification, as demonstrated by MicroStrategy's pioneering strategy.</li><li>The "Financial Engineering" Playbook: MicroStrategy's approach goes beyond simple asset allocation, employing sophisticated financial engineering (e.g., convertible notes, equity issuances) to create value for shareholders by continuously acquiring more Bitcoin per share. </li></ul>

Evolving Treasury Landscape: Corporate treasuries face challenges from macroeconomic shifts, including high interest rate volatility, significant monetary expansion leading to inflation, and increasing geopolitical risks impacting cash flows and profitability.Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset: Bitcoin has emerged as an alternative asset for these challenges, offering a scarce and increasingly institutionally viable asset for potential long-term value preservation and portfolio diversification, as demonstrated by MicroStrategy's pioneering strategy.The "Financial Engineering" Playbook: MicroStrategy's approach goes beyond simple asset allocation, employing sophisticated financial engineering (e.g., convertible notes, equity issuances) to create value for shareholders by continuously acquiring more Bitcoin per share. 

Altcoin Strategic Reserves: Why Are Public Companies Buying Altcoins?

<ul><li>Significant Growth &amp; Untapped Potential: While global crypto ETF AUM has reached $168.3B, this represents a small fraction of the $14.8T global ETF market and the $128T total global AUM, indicating a vast addressable market and substantial room for future expansion. We project the global crypto ETF AUM to potentially exceed $1T in five years, over 6x the current level.</li><li aria-level="1">US Dominance in AUM, Europe in Variety: The US leads globally with $144.3B in crypto ETF AUM (85.7% market share), largely driven by the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Europe, while smaller in AUM ($15.3B), offers a wider array of altcoin ETFs. Canada and Hong Kong have also emerged as important regional hubs.</li><li aria-level="1">Quantitative Spotlight on US Market Dynamics: Daily net flows into spot ETFs show a positive but modest correlation with Bitcoin price changes (0.34) and a very weak correlation for Ethereum (0.13). Coupled with low R-squared values, this indicates that spot ETF flows, while impacting underlying crypto price, are just one of many factors</li></ul>

Significant Growth &amp; Untapped Potential: While global crypto ETF AUM has reached $168.3B, this represents a small fraction of the $14.8T global ETF market and the $128T total global AUM, indicating a vast addressable market and substantial room for future expansion. We project the global crypto ETF AUM to potentially exceed $1T in five years, over 6x the current level.US Dominance in AUM, Europe in Variety: The US leads globally with $144.3B in crypto ETF AUM (85.7% market share), largely driven by the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Europe, while smaller in AUM ($15.3B), offers a wider array of altcoin ETFs. Canada and Hong Kong have also emerged as important regional hubs.Quantitative Spotlight on US Market Dynamics: Daily net flows into spot ETFs show a positive but modest correlation with Bitcoin price changes (0.34) and a very weak correlation for Ethereum (0.13). Coupled with low R-squared values, this indicates that spot ETF flows, while impacting underlying crypto price, are just one of many factors

Crypto ETFs: Global Landscape, Market Dynamics, and Outlook

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

<ul><li>Market depth is a widely used measure of liquidity, commonly calculated across the order books of cryptocurrency pairs on centralized exchanges (CEXes).</li><li>It provides the amount of bids and asks at varying distances from the mid-price, encompassing a range from -0.1% to 10%.</li><li>This chart shows cumulative ETH-USDT bid and ask volumes at various levels on the ten largest CEXes.</li></ul>

Market depth is a widely used measure of liquidity, commonly calculated across the order books of cryptocurrency pairs on centralized exchanges (CEXes).It provides the amount of bids and asks at varying distances from the mid-price, encompassing a range from -0.1% to 10%.This chart shows cumulative ETH-USDT bid and ask volumes at various levels on the ten largest CEXes.

Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

2025 Q3 Listing Report

Q3 saw a shift in altcoin exchange listing activities from a low phase to a more volatile model. July marked the first recovery, driven by...

Animoca Brands Research

Interpreting Circulating Supply Effects on Token Valuation: MC Vs FDV

Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) and Market Capitalisation (MC), while subject to various externalities, are often used as reference points for token...

Animoca Brands Research

Altcoin Strategic Reserves: Why Are Public Companies Buying Altcoins?

Corporate treasuries face challenges from macroeconomic shifts, including high interest rate volatility, significant monetary expansion leading to...

Animoca Brands Research

Crypto ETFs: Global Landscape, Market Dynamics, and Outlook

While global crypto ETF AUM has reached $168.3B, this represents a small fraction of the $14.8T global ETF market and the $128T total global AUM...

Animoca Brands Research

Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance

Market depth is a widely used measure of liquidity, commonly calculated across the order books of cryptocurrency pairs on centralized exchanges...

Kaiko

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