TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 3/20/2020

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>The trend of 2019’s payment services mega-deals is set to continue but in the form of a greater volume of small transactions.</li>
<li>Potential take-out candidates include the likes of: ACI Worldwide (ACIW.US); i3 Verticals (IIIV.US); and Repay Holdings (RPAY.US).</li>
<li> While US will expereince a continuation of deals, Asia will remain the FinTech M&amp;A hotbed. </li>
</ul>


The trend of 2019’s payment services mega-deals is set to continue but in the form of a greater volume of small transactions.
Potential take-out candidates include the likes of: ACI Worldwide (ACIW.US); i3 Verticals (IIIV.US); and Repay Holdings (RPAY.US).
 While US will expereince a continuation of deals, Asia will remain the FinTech M&amp;A hotbed. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.</li>
<li>In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.</li>
<li>From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…</li>
</ul>


The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.
In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.
From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…


Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in mid-2025, the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, tabled a <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250625/pdf/06l2zmbfzc4v92.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$0.58/share NBIO</a>, by way of a Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">humm (HUM AU)</a>. Abercrombie then held 26.6%.</li>
<li>Matters then muddied, considerably, for the non-bank lender. First from disgruntled activist/shareholders seeking a board spill; then the Takeovers Panel waded in over shareholders being misled on a competing Offer. </li>
<li>That rival Offer, A$0.77/share Scheme or A$0.72 off-market, both NBIOs, was from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a>. Due diligence is nearing completion. Does CCP firm terms or walk?</li>
</ul>


Back in mid-2025, the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, tabled a A$0.58/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme for humm (HUM AU). Abercrombie then held 26.6%.
Matters then muddied, considerably, for the non-bank lender. First from disgruntled activist/shareholders seeking a board spill; then the Takeovers Panel waded in over shareholders being misled on a competing Offer. 
That rival Offer, A$0.77/share Scheme or A$0.72 off-market, both NBIOs, was from Credit Corp (CCP AU). Due diligence is nearing completion. Does CCP firm terms or walk?


Humm (HUM AU): Credit Corp Nears DD Completion

United States

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

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Block (XYZ US)

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 3/20/2020

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer...

Aaron Gabin

US FinTech M&A Trend Set to Continue

The trend of 2019’s payment services mega-deals is set to continue but in the form of a greater volume of small transactions. Potential take-out...

Thomas J. Monaco

USD Breakout; Foreign Markets Reeling

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside...

Vermilion Research

Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via...

Sean Maher

Humm (HUM AU): Credit Corp Nears DD Completion

Downside appears limited here - ~8% to where shares traded shortly after TAG walked away last November. I'm guessing no new developments until...

David Blennerhassett

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