IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (1058656D IN)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India by revenue in FY21. It has won SEBI approval to raise up to $1 billion.  </li>
<li>The fundamentals are mixed as it has been unable to leverage its leading position and strong growth to deliver profits or cash generation.  </li>
<li>Based on the draft red herring prospectus, we are cautious about this potential IPO as the negatives outweigh the positives.  </li>
</ul>



Delhivery (1058656D IN) is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India by revenue in FY21. It has won SEBI approval to raise up to $1 billion.  
The fundamentals are mixed as it has been unable to leverage its leading position and strong growth to deliver profits or cash generation.  
Based on the draft red herring prospectus, we are cautious about this potential IPO as the negatives outweigh the positives.  


Delhivery IPO Initiation: Can It Deliver?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We recently released our Logistics thematic report, wherein we stressed upon the superlative growth potential of the Indian Logistics sector and the opportunities for the organized players like Blue Dart Express (BDE). We had assigned a Neutral stance on the stock owing to its rich valuation. The unparalleled network presence of BDE and strong growth in Express cargo would drive consistent growth in volumes across its offerings over the next few years.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We recently released our Logistics thematic report, wherein we stressed upon the superlative growth potential of the Indian Logistics sector and the opportunities for the organized players like Blue Dart Express (BDE). We had assigned a Neutral stance on the stock owing to its rich valuation. The unparalleled network presence of BDE and strong growth in Express cargo would drive consistent growth in volumes across its offerings over the next few years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Focus on increasing share of Ground Express

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (9699 HK)</a> is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (9699 HK) is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

<p>EBITDA grew 35% YoY to INR2b (+138% QoQ). The EBITDA margin jumped to a near-record high of 17.7% (+61bp YoY); it improved on account of better realization and steps undertaken to increase efficiency. The company offered a one-time payment of INR360m rewarding its employees for their outstanding efforts during the COVID-19 crisis. Strong operating performance and lower depreciation resulted in 66% YoY growth in adjusted PAT to INR1.3b.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

EBITDA grew 35% YoY to INR2b (+138% QoQ). The EBITDA margin jumped to a near-record high of 17.7% (+61bp YoY); it improved on account of better realization and steps undertaken to increase efficiency. The company offered a one-time payment of INR360m rewarding its employees for their outstanding efforts during the COVID-19 crisis. Strong operating performance and lower depreciation resulted in 66% YoY growth in adjusted PAT to INR1.3b.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

India

Blue Dart Express Limited operates a courier service and an integrated express package distribution company.  The Company offers delivery of packages and documents in India and throughout the world.

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Blue Dart Express (BDE IN)

Delhivery IPO Initiation: Can It Deliver?

Delhivery has won SEBI approval to raise up to $1 billion. Based on the draft red herring prospectus, we are cautious about this potential IPO as...

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

Festive demand drives volumes in 2QFY22

EBITDA grew 35% YoY to INR2b (+138% QoQ). The EBITDA margin jumped to a near-record high of 17.7% (+61bp YoY); it improved on account of better...

Motilal Oswal

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Delhivery IPO Initiation: Can It Deliver?

Delhivery has won SEBI approval to raise up to $1 billion. Based on the draft red herring prospectus, we are cautious about this potential IPO as...

Arun George

Focus on increasing share of Ground Express

We recently released our Logistics thematic report, wherein we stressed upon the superlative growth potential of the Indian Logistics sector and...

Motilal Oswal

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

Festive demand drives volumes in 2QFY22

EBITDA grew 35% YoY to INR2b (+138% QoQ). The EBITDA margin jumped to a near-record high of 17.7% (+61bp YoY); it improved on account of better...

Motilal Oswal

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George