Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>While the short-selling ban for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.</li>
<li>Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.</li>
<li>Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.</li>
</ul>


While the short-selling ban for the KOSPI 200 INDEX will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.
Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.
Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NPS is concerned that aggressive value-up measures by bank holding companies and ongoing cancellations might quickly use up their room up to the 10% ownership limit.</li>
<li>With their stake already at mid-8%, they may not buy as much as the index suggests, creating new trading opportunities in the four major bank holding companies.</li>
<li>Woori Financial has more room for buying, so as the year ends, NPS's skewed-buying could give it a better price impact than other bank holding companies.</li>
</ul>


NPS is concerned that aggressive value-up measures by bank holding companies and ongoing cancellations might quickly use up their room up to the 10% ownership limit.
With their stake already at mid-8%, they may not buy as much as the index suggests, creating new trading opportunities in the four major bank holding companies.
Woori Financial has more room for buying, so as the year ends, NPS's skewed-buying could give it a better price impact than other bank holding companies.


Value-Up Flow Trading Opportunities Arising from NPS's 10% Ownership Ceiling on Banks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities</li>
<li>Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials</li>
<li>Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns</li>
</ul>


Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities
Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns


South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial, Hana Financial, Skc, Posco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial, Hana Financial, Skc, Posco.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial, Skc, Posco

<ul>
<li>We can check this on KIND, KRX's disclosure site. As an example, SK Inc. disclosed this information on July 26, two weeks before the dividend record date, August 10.</li>
<li>We can capture this information in English without the need for Korean. The disclosure title we must hunt is "Decision on Closure of Shareholder's Registry (including Record Date) for Dividends."</li>
<li>The critical aspect here is that we need to identify disclosures from companies that still use the year's last trading day as the dividend base date.</li>
</ul>


We can check this on KIND, KRX's disclosure site. As an example, SK Inc. disclosed this information on July 26, two weeks before the dividend record date, August 10.
We can capture this information in English without the need for Korean. The disclosure title we must hunt is "Decision on Closure of Shareholder's Registry (including Record Date) for Dividends."
The critical aspect here is that we need to identify disclosures from companies that still use the year's last trading day as the dividend base date.


Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea

South Korea

BNK Financial Group Inc. a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services. The Company's main businesses include banking, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bnk Financial Group (138930 KS)

EQD | KOSPI 200 May Pullback Soon...

Pullbacks on the KOSPI 200 INDEX are currently a buy opportunity, given the short-selling ban still in place. We predict a short-term WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Value-Up Flow Trading Opportunities Arising from NPS's 10% Ownership Ceiling on Banks

This post explores the flow trading opportunities likely to emerge from NPS's 10% stake ceiling on local banks, which are key targets in the value...

Sanghyun Park

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

South Korean banks' NPL ratios worsened in 2Q24, but there are buy opportunities. Hana and Woori are our picks for attractive valuations,...

Victor Galliano

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial, Skc, Posco

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea

This post provides a step-by-step guide to spot which companies will effectively postpone the dividend base date to next April in Korea.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | KOSPI 200 May Pullback Soon...

Pullbacks on the KOSPI 200 INDEX are currently a buy opportunity, given the short-selling ban still in place. We predict a short-term WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Value-Up Flow Trading Opportunities Arising from NPS's 10% Ownership Ceiling on Banks

This post explores the flow trading opportunities likely to emerge from NPS's 10% stake ceiling on local banks, which are key targets in the value...

Sanghyun Park

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

​South Korean banks' NPL ratios worsened in 2Q24, but there are buy opportunities. Hana and Woori are our picks for attractive valuations,...

Victor Galliano

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial, Skc, Posco

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shinhan Financia, Amorepacific, Kb Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea

This post provides a step-by-step guide to spot which companies will effectively postpone the dividend base date to next April in Korea.

Sanghyun Park

South Korean banks' NPL ratios worsened in 2Q24, but there are buy opportunities. Hana and Woori are our picks for attractive valuations,...