Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Prop (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land (12 HK)</a> are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.</li>
<li>Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Hang Lung Prop (101 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK) are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.
Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.


HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers. </li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Sentiment improved modestly, though breadth remains well below recent highs in a subdued price action.</li>
<li>Option activity climbed steadily, with strong Friday Call demand pushing the Put/Call ratio to lower bound.</li>
<li>Financials stood out across price action, volatility, and options activity.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment improved modestly, though breadth remains well below recent highs in a subdued price action.
Option activity climbed steadily, with strong Friday Call demand pushing the Put/Call ratio to lower bound.
Financials stood out across price action, volatility, and options activity.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

Hong Kong

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BOC Hong Kong (BOC HK) (2388 HK)

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot

SOUTHBOUND again strong in overall volume helped by big day-trading in Guotai Junnan, still. Meituan tops and still running after 12 weeks.

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain high. Turnover at newly-listed Hs is VERY high. Too high. There is a lot of speculative trading boosting values/comms....

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

​High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot

SOUTHBOUND again strong in overall volume helped by big day-trading in Guotai Junnan, still. Meituan tops and still running after 12 weeks.

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain high. Turnover at newly-listed Hs is VERY high. Too high. There is a lot of speculative trading boosting values/comms....

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 07–11): Financials in Focus as Call Volumes Rise

​Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.

John Ley

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Sentiment improved slightly, but breadth remains low in subdued price action. Financials were a standout in price, volatility, and options activity.