Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

KHI is down 5.5% today vs. peers down about 2-4% as all the talk is about Trump's escalating trade spat with China and investor concern builds over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11957" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957:1">Boeing Co (BA US)</a> which was down 5% overnight (vs. Airbus which closed down just 1% after rallying 2% into the close). However, we feel this may be a misjudgement by the market as KHI does not supply parts for Boeing's 737 which could be the most heavily impacted by this trade friction. In fact, we believe the company could actually benefit if China…

KHI is down 5.5% today vs. peers down about 2-4% as all the talk is about Trump's escalating trade spat with China and investor concern builds over Boeing Co (BA US) which was down 5% overnight (vs. Airbus which closed down just 1% after rallying 2% into the close). However, we feel this may be a misjudgement by the market as KHI does not supply parts for Boeing's 737 which could be the most heavily impacted by this trade friction. In fact, we believe the company could actually benefit if China…

KHI: Not the Most Vulnerable to Chinese Retaliation Against Boeing, Russian MC-21 Is a Wildcard

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs. Aero/defense-related names continue to be favorites of ours within the Manufacturing Sector.  In today’s report we highlight the following names: Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), TransDigm (TDG), Textron (TXT), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Embraer S.A. ADR (ERJ), and L3 Technologies (LLL).

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs. Aero/defense-related names continue to be favorites of ours within the Manufacturing Sector.  In today’s report we highlight the following names: Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), TransDigm (TDG), Textron (TXT), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Embraer S.A. ADR (ERJ), and L3 Technologies (LLL).

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined funding requirements up by 2-3% of GDP.</li>
<li>However, the structure of the tax changes disproportionately benefit top quintile households with a high propensity to save, both directly and via the equity market buyback/dividend wealth effect.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the trade deficit numbers look 1-1.5% too high, due to now less attractive transfer pricing/profit…</li>
</ul>


US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined funding requirements up by 2-3% of GDP.
However, the structure of the tax changes disproportionately benefit top quintile households with a high propensity to save, both directly and via the equity market buyback/dividend wealth effect.
Furthermore, the trade deficit numbers look 1-1.5% too high, due to now less attractive transfer pricing/profit…


Dollar Bears Focus on Twin Deficits, as China Fears Imply Software Led 5G Rollout

Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Event-Driven

Toray's stock was down -5.3% today on its revelation that it falsified data on its tire cord products sold to tire makers and auto parts suppliers. While it is sad that Toray adds to the string of data falsification scandals in Corporate Japan, we see this as a good opportunity to buy the stock.We spoke with Toray about the incident today and learned that there should be close to no impact on overall profits. The company stressed that there were no illegalities in the incident. The tire cord…

Toray's stock was down -5.3% today on its revelation that it falsified data on its tire cord products sold to tire makers and auto parts suppliers. While it is sad that Toray adds to the string of data falsification scandals in Corporate Japan, we see this as a good opportunity to buy the stock.We spoke with Toray about the incident today and learned that there should be close to no impact on overall profits. The company stressed that there were no illegalities in the incident. The tire cord…

Toray (3402) Falsifies Tire Cord Data--Buying Opportunity

United States

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services to the commercial airline industry worldwide.  The Company also researches, develops, produces, modifies, and supports information, space, and defense systems, including military aircraft, helicopters and space and missile systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Boeing Co (BA US)

KHI: Not the Most Vulnerable to Chinese Retaliation Against Boeing, Russian MC-21 Is a Wildcard

KHI is down 5.5% today vs. peers down about 2-4% as all the talk is about Trump's escalating trade spat with China and investor concern builds over...

Mio Kato

U. S. Aerospace & Defense Lifting Off

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs....

Vermilion Research

Dollar Bears Focus on Twin Deficits, as China Fears Imply Software Led 5G Rollout

US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined...

Sean Maher

Bombardier: Flying on Fumes

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Toray (3402) Falsifies Tire Cord Data--Buying Opportunity

Toray's stock was down -5.3% today on its revelation that it falsified data on its tire cord products sold to tire makers and auto parts suppliers....

SC Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)