Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Equity Bottom-Up

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/782" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1">General Electric Co (GE US)</a> (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a total return of -42.1%, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index (“S&amp;P”) at 21.8%. Moreover, the company’s streak of dividend growth after the financial crises was interrupted with the dividend for 2018 slashed in half to an annualised rate of $0.48 per share, pushing it back down to 1999 levels. The management of GE is struggling with a conglomerate operating in multiple business segments, that possess neither technology nor market synergy. We expect continued under-performance in 2018 as well.We do not expect EBITDA to grow from current levels given multiple headwinds in approximately 50% of GE’s revenue base. We expect any gains in costs to be competed away in an over-supplied market for industrial infrastructure. Higher rates will compress EV/EBITDA multiples going forward.  Current valuation of GE does not reflect that eventuality yet. Compressed multiples could easily result in a single digit stock price for GE in the second half of 2018. Currently GE is priced for perfection, although it has proven to be a mere mortal since the financial crises. Simplistic bench-marking to industry peers appears to suggest a fully valued stock price, while ignoring myriad GE specific challenges such as accounting, governance, corporate control over reporting &amp; auditing, and declining product end-market. If, what's past is prologue then the company's accounting has set it up for more downside going forward. Stay tuned.

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a total return of -42.1%, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index (“S&amp;P”) at 21.8%. Moreover, the company’s streak of dividend growth after the financial crises was interrupted with the dividend for 2018 slashed in half to an annualised rate of $0.48 per share, pushing it back down to 1999 levels. The management of GE is struggling with a conglomerate operating in multiple business segments, that possess neither technology nor market synergy. We expect continued under-performance in 2018 as well.We do not expect EBITDA to grow from current levels given multiple headwinds in approximately 50% of GE’s revenue base. We expect any gains in costs to be competed away in an over-supplied market for industrial infrastructure. Higher rates will compress EV/EBITDA multiples going forward.  Current valuation of GE does not reflect that eventuality yet. Compressed multiples could easily result in a single digit stock price for GE in the second half of 2018. Currently GE is priced for perfection, although it has proven to be a mere mortal since the financial crises. Simplistic bench-marking to industry peers appears to suggest a fully valued stock price, while ignoring myriad GE specific challenges such as accounting, governance, corporate control over reporting &amp; auditing, and declining product end-market. If, what's past is prologue then the company's accounting has set it up for more downside going forward. Stay tuned.

General Electric (GE US )- 25% Downside and Perhaps a Single Digit Stock Price in Its Future?

Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Canada

Bombardier Inc. is a manufacturer of both planes and trains.The Company operates plants in North America, Europe, and Asia.

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Bombardier Inc (BBD/B CN)

General Electric (GE US )- 25% Downside and Perhaps a Single Digit Stock Price in Its Future?

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a...

ANTYA Investments

Bombardier: Flying on Fumes

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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