Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

B3  - Brasil Bolsa Balcao / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated</li>
<li>We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations</li>
<li>We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group</li>
</ul>


We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated
We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations
We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group


GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextbillion-technology-pvt-ltd-groww" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34787:1" rel="noopener">Groww (1573648D IN)</a> raised around US$747m in its India IPO. Groww, officially called Billionbrains Garage Ventures, is a direct-to-customer digital investment platform providing multiple financial products and services.</li>
<li>With Groww, customers can invest and trade in stocks (including via IPOs), derivatives, bonds, mutual funds and other products. Customers can also avail margin trading facility and personal loans.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Groww (1573648D IN) raised around US$747m in its India IPO. Groww, officially called Billionbrains Garage Ventures, is a direct-to-customer digital investment platform providing multiple financial products and services.
With Groww, customers can invest and trade in stocks (including via IPOs), derivatives, bonds, mutual funds and other products. Customers can also avail margin trading facility and personal loans.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Groww IPO Trading - Decent Overall Demand

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there could be one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors (TTMT IN)</a> could result in index deletion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grasim-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:290:1" rel="noopener">Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)</a> being added to the index instead.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim - Dark Horse

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

National Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NSE dominates market as it maintains a near-monopoly (∼90% share) in equity cash and dominates the booming derivatives segment.</li>
<li>NSE's Revenue and PAT are 5-9x larger than BSE's, with a much higher PAT margin (68% vs. 44%).</li>
<li>NSE Holds appreciating, strategic minority stakes in high-potential financial infrastructure companies which can be seen as hidden value for NSE.</li>
</ul>


NSE dominates market as it maintains a near-monopoly (∼90% share) in equity cash and dominates the booming derivatives segment.
NSE's Revenue and PAT are 5-9x larger than BSE's, with a much higher PAT margin (68% vs. 44%).
NSE Holds appreciating, strategic minority stakes in high-potential financial infrastructure companies which can be seen as hidden value for NSE.


NSE India: Not Just an Exchange, but a Strategic Holding Company.

Event-Driven

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors (TTMT IN)</a> is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.</li>
<li>Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX</a> trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.

NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.


Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

India

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited provides market for trading in equity, debt instruments, derivatives, and mutual funds. The Company offers services including risk management, clearing, settlement, market data services, and education. Bombay Stock Exchange serves customers in India. ... More

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Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN)

GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...

Victor Galliano

Groww IPO Trading - Decent Overall Demand

Groww raised around US$747m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the subscription demand and the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim - Dark Horse

Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, Tata Motors could be deleted from the index. Indigo is the highest ranked non-member;...

Brian Freitas

NSE India: Not Just an Exchange, but a Strategic Holding Company.

NSE's near-monopoly dominance in the market, high revenue and PAT compared to BSE, and strategic minority stakes in financial infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors is demerging its PV and CV businesses. Both entities will remain in global indices. Nifty and Sensex trackers will sell their CV shares...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

​In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...

Victor Galliano

Groww IPO Trading - Decent Overall Demand

Groww raised around US$747m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the subscription demand and the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim - Dark Horse

Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, Tata Motors could be deleted from the index. Indigo is the highest ranked non-member;...

Brian Freitas

NSE India: Not Just an Exchange, but a Strategic Holding Company.

​NSE's near-monopoly dominance in the market, high revenue and PAT compared to BSE, and strategic minority stakes in financial infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors is demerging its PV and CV businesses. Both entities will remain in global indices. Nifty and Sensex trackers will sell their CV shares...

Brian Freitas

In GEM exchanges, stick with B3 as our buy due to attractive value and low PEG, downgrade HKEx to neutral, and downgrade BSE to sell due to rich...

NSE's near-monopoly dominance in the market, high revenue and PAT compared to BSE, and strategic minority stakes in financial infrastructure...