Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.</li>
<li>There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title</li>
<li>We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.
There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title
We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)


Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven by strong demand, especially in the European and Asian markets.</li><li>The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in room nights, with total bookings on Booking Holdings' platforms approaching 300 million for the quarter.</li><li>This growth translated into a 9% rise in revenue year-over-year, reaching $8 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 12% year-over-year to $3.7 billion.</li></ul>

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven by strong demand, especially in the European and Asian markets.The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in room nights, with total bookings on Booking Holdings' platforms approaching 300 million for the quarter.This growth translated into a 9% rise in revenue year-over-year, reaching $8 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 12% year-over-year to $3.7 billion.

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.</li>
<li>Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.</li>
<li>The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.</li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.
Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.
The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

<ul><li>Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a performance that exceeded expectations in various key metrics including room nights, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.</li><li>Room nights booked during the quarter grew by 7% year-over-year, achieving a total of 287 million.</li><li>Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rose by 7% to $5.9 billion and $1.9 billion respectively, while adjusted earnings per share experienced an 11% increase.</li></ul>

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a performance that exceeded expectations in various key metrics including room nights, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.Room nights booked during the quarter grew by 7% year-over-year, achieving a total of 287 million.Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rose by 7% to $5.9 billion and $1.9 billion respectively, while adjusted earnings per share experienced an 11% increase.

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Booking Holdings has made a robust start to 2024 by posting strong first quarter results.</li><li>The company revealed that travelers booked nearly 300 million room nights across its platforms in Q1, exceeding its expectations and showing growth of 9% YoY. Moreover, revenue for Q1 stood at $4.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 17%, while adjusted EBITDA was approximately $900 million, climbing Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Booking Holdings has made a robust start to 2024 by posting strong first quarter results.The company revealed that travelers booked nearly 300 million room nights across its platforms in Q1, exceeding its expectations and showing growth of 9% YoY. Moreover, revenue for Q1 stood at $4.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 17%, while adjusted EBITDA was approximately $900 million, climbing Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Booking Holdings Inc.: Expanding Beyond Traditional Accommodations & How AI Is Helping Them Change The Game! - Major Drivers

United States

Booking Holdings Inc. operates as an online travel company. The Company offers a platform that allows to make travel reservations with providers of travel services, as well as provides accommodation reservations, rentals cars, airline tickets, and vacation packages. Booking Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Booking Holdings (BKNG US)

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a...

Baptista Research

Booking Holdings Inc.: Expanding Beyond Traditional Accommodations & How AI Is Helping Them Change The Game! - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings has made a robust start to 2024 by posting strong first quarter results. The company revealed that travelers booked nearly 300...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

​Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a...

Baptista Research

Booking Holdings Inc.: Expanding Beyond Traditional Accommodations & How AI Is Helping Them Change The Game! - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings has made a robust start to 2024 by posting strong first quarter results. The company revealed that travelers booked nearly 300...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...